中辉期货今日重点推荐-20251022

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term Bearish Consolidation: This view applies to both soybean meal and rapeseed meal. For soybean meal, factors such as the harvest and listing of US soybeans, the potential entry of Argentine soybean meal into the Chinese market, and the lack of strong bullish drivers contribute to this outlook. Rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal due to the lack of new driving factors and the complexity of trade - related factors [1]. - Short - term Fluctuation: Palm oil and soybean oil are expected to experience short - term fluctuations. Palm oil is affected by the price competition of US soybean oil and the relatively good export data from Malaysia in the first fifteen days of the month. Soybean oil is influenced by factors like the US government shutdown, the harvest of US soybeans, and the decline in crude oil prices, as well as the high domestic inventory [1]. - High - level Fluctuation: Rapeseed oil is forecasted to maintain a high - level fluctuation. This is due to the low operating rate of oil mills, the market's mindset of hoarding and price - holding, and the entry into the consumption peak season, despite the lack of actual trading in the spot market [1]. - Upward Pressure: Cotton is under upward pressure. The increase in supply from the harvest of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries, along with the high level of unpriced buy orders, restricts the upward movement of cotton prices. In the Chinese market, the continuous harvest of new cotton and the increase in imports also put pressure on the supply side [1]. - Sell on Rally: For both red dates and live pigs, the strategy is to sell on rally. For red dates, the expected supply pressure after the new fruit is listed, combined with the potential for short - term speculation, leads to this strategy. For live pigs, the increasing supply pressure in Q4 and the decline in post - festival demand support this approach [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - Market Data: As of October 17, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 988.4 million tons, a decrease of 20.8 million tons from the previous week. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 768.7 million tons, an increase of 2.94 million tons from the previous week. The soybean meal inventory was 97.62 million tons, a decrease of 10.29 million tons from the previous week. The average physical inventory days of domestic feed enterprises' soybean meal was 7.93 days, a decrease of 0.41 days from October 10 [3]. - Analysis: The supply in the spot market is sufficient, but the oil mills' profit is in a loss state, leading to a stronger willingness to hold prices. The potential entry of Argentine soybean meal into the Chinese market may further fill the supply gap. The poor outlook for Brazil in the next fifteen days has led to a small - scale rebound of soybean meal at a low level. The Sino - US trade tariff provides short - term support around 2800 yuan/ton. Due to the lack of strong bullish drivers, soybean meal is expected to remain in a weak consolidation state [4]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - Market Data: As of October 17, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.2 million tons from the previous week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 0.78 million tons, a decrease of 0.37 million tons from the previous week. The unfulfilled contracts were 0.98 million tons, a decrease of 0.67 million tons from the previous week [6]. - Analysis: The international market sees an expected increase in the production of Canadian rapeseed. In the Chinese market, rapeseed meal is in a state of inventory reduction, but the demand enters the seasonal off - season as the temperature drops. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed indicates that Sino - Canadian trade negotiations will take time, and the bullish impact is limited considering the trade flow of Australian rapeseed. Due to the lack of new driving factors, it follows the trend of soybean meal [6]. 3.3 Palm Oil - Market Data: As of October 17, 2025, the national key areas' palm oil commercial inventory was 57.57 million tons, an increase of 2.81 million tons from the previous week. The export data from different institutions in Malaysia in the first fifteen days of October showed an increase compared to the same period last month [9]. - Analysis: The price competition of US soybean oil and the good export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first fifteen days of the month create a situation of mixed bullish and bearish factors. Palm oil is expected to maintain a high - level fluctuation, and short - term long positions can be considered when the price stabilizes at a low level, but the upward space is limited [9]. 3.4 Cotton - Market Data: In the US, the new cotton harvest is about 40% - 50% complete. In Brazil, more than 50% of the new cotton has been processed and inspected, and the export in September accelerated significantly. In Australia, the new cotton sowing has good soil moisture, and the new - season production is expected to exceed the average level. In China, the new cotton picking progress is nearly 70%, the public inspection volume is 82.3 million tons, and the sales progress is 6.7%. The domestic cotton commercial inventory has increased to 143.34 million tons [11][12]. - Analysis: The increase in supply from the harvest of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries, along with the support from India's MSP import tariff and the high level of unpriced buy orders, restricts the upward movement of cotton prices. In the Chinese market, the continuous harvest of new cotton and the increase in imports put pressure on the supply side. The downstream demand is in a seasonal weakening trend, and the foreign trade performance remains under pressure. The main contract price is approaching the intensive hedging pressure level, and there is a risk of price re - adjustment and decline [13]. 3.5 Red Dates - Market Data: The estimated new - season production of red dates is between 56 - 62 million tons, a decrease compared to previous years. The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises this week is 9167 tons, a decrease of 158 tons from the previous week [16]. - Analysis: Based on the current production forecast and the carry - over inventory, there is still expected supply pressure after the new fruit is listed. In the short term, the new - season red dates in Xinjiang are about to be harvested, and there is a risk of short - term speculation. The demand is expected to gradually improve as the temperature drops, but there is no obvious inflection point yet. The strategy is to sell on rally around the time of the new jujube harvest [17]. 3.6 Live Pigs - Market Data: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume of enterprises in October increased by 5.48% compared to the previous month. The average slaughter weight increased by 0.01 kg this week. The number of newly - born piglets in September increased by 0.11 million heads compared to the previous month. The number of breeding sows decreased in August and September [19]. - Analysis: The widening of the price difference between standard and fattened pigs has led to an increase in the entry of secondary fattening in North China and Northeast China, shifting the supply pressure to the end of November to early December. In the short term, the slaughter progress in early October was slow, and the supply pressure in Q4 is expected to increase. The post - festival demand has gradually declined, and the wholesale and sales have slowed down. The short - term market rebound is recommended to be used as an opportunity to sell [20].