中辉有色观点-20251022

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High-level adjustment [2] - Silver: High-level correction [2] - Copper: High-level consolidation [2] - Zinc: Rebound and short sell [2] - Lead: Rebound [2] - Tin: Rebound [2] - Aluminum: Rebound, with pressure [2] - Nickel: Stabilize [2] - Industrial silicon: Range-bound [2] - Polysilicon: Bullish [2] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [2] Core Views - The prices of gold and silver dropped significantly due to the potential cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the withdrawal of speculative forces. However, in the long term, gold's upward logic remains unchanged, while silver has a supply - demand gap in the long run. Copper prices are affected by the potential end of the war and inventory accumulation, but are still bullish in the long term. Zinc supply is expected to increase while demand decreases. Lead, tin, and aluminum prices show short - term rebound trends. Nickel prices are stabilizing at a low level. Industrial silicon is in a range - bound state. Polysilicon is expected to rise after a correction. Lithium carbonate is in a state of supply - demand balance and is cautiously bullish [2]. Summary by Catalog Gold and Silver - Market Review: Geopolitical relaxation and profit - taking of overbought funds led to a sharp decline in gold and silver prices, with the largest decline in 12 years [3]. - Underlying Logic: The Russia - Ukraine process is full of uncertainties; the tariff atmosphere between G2 is easing; there are political changes in Japan. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: Wait for gold prices to stop falling in the short term. For silver, exit short - term positions and hold long - term positions. Long - term gold's upward logic remains unchanged [4]. Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper fluctuated at a high level, with a V - shaped rebound during the session, and returned to the support level of 85,000 yuan [6]. - Underlying Logic: Overseas copper mine supply disturbances increased, and domestic electrolytic copper production in the fourth quarter is expected to shrink. High copper prices led to inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold existing long positions with trailing stop - loss protection. New long positions should wait for a pull - back to stabilize. Long - term prospects for copper are positive [7]. Zinc - Market Review: Zinc prices fluctuated and were under pressure at the 22,000 - yuan mark [9]. - Underlying Logic: Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and zinc smelters are actively producing. The peak season for demand is not strong, and the situation of weak domestic and strong overseas zinc persists [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: Gradually take profits on short positions and wait for a rebound to re - enter short positions. Zinc is a short - side allocation in the long term [10]. Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices rebounded with pressure, and alumina prices stabilized at a low level [12]. - Underlying Logic: There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts overseas. The electrolytic aluminum industry has high production capacity and inventory is decreasing. Alumina is in an oversupply situation [13]. - Strategy Recommendation: Buy on dips in the short term, and pay attention to the operating range of the main contract [14]. Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices rebounded slightly, and stainless steel prices rebounded from a low level [16]. - Underlying Logic: Overseas nickel mine supply disturbances have weakened, and domestic pure nickel inventory has increased significantly. Stainless steel inventory has accumulated, and terminal demand is weak [17]. - Strategy Recommendation: Wait and see for now, and pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption and the operating range of the main contract [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2601 opened slightly lower and fluctuated within a narrow range throughout the day [20]. - Underlying Logic: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, inventory has been decreasing for 9 consecutive weeks, and terminal demand is strong. There are rumors of supply - side accidents [21]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract within the range of 75,500 - 77,000 yuan [22].