黑色金属数据日报-20251022

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The steel market is weakly stable and fluctuating, with the total steel inventory returning to destocking, but some varieties still have serious inventory accumulation. The market participants are cautious, and the demand lacks explosive power. It is not recommended to participate in directional speculative trading for now [3]. - The valuation of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is low, and the cost is supported. The production profit of double - silicon is poor in the short term, and the supply is difficult to increase. The demand for double - silicon is strong due to high - level hot metal. The inventory of ferrosilicon is normal, and the subsequent accumulation pressure is not large. It is recommended to go long on ferrosilicon at low prices [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the steel mills have not responded to the second price increase. The supply of coking coal after the festival has not increased significantly, and the hot metal output remains high. The market is still in a state of shock. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. - For iron ore, there is no obvious driving force in the short term. The supply is not significantly affected, and the high - level hot metal may lead to over - supply of steel in the second half of the year. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On October 21, the closing prices of far - month contracts RB2605, HC2605, I2605, J2605, and JM2605 were 3104.00 yuan/ton, 3236.00 yuan/ton, 749.50 yuan/ton, 1817.50 yuan/ton, and 1250.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10.00 yuan/ton, - 9.00 yuan/ton, 0.50 yuan/ton, - 47.00 yuan/ton, and - 47.00 yuan/ton, and the corresponding percentage changes were - 0.32%, - 0.28%, 0.07%, - 2.52%, and - 3.62% [1]. - The closing prices of near - month contracts RB2601, HC2601, I2601, J2601, and JM2601 were 3047.00 yuan/ton, 3219.00 yuan/ton, 769.50 yuan/ton, 1672.00 yuan/ton, and 1177.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 11.00 yuan/ton, - 10.00 yuan/ton, 1.00 yuan/ton, - 47.00 yuan/ton, and - 42.50 yuan/ton, and the corresponding percentage changes were - 0.36%, - 0.31%, 0.13%, - 2.73%, and - 3.49% [1]. - The cross - month spreads of RB2601 - 2605, HC2601 - 2605, I2601 - 2605, J2601 - 2605, and JM2601 - 2605 on October 21 were - 57.00 yuan/ton, - 17.00 yuan/ton, 20.00 yuan/ton, - 145.50 yuan/ton, and - 73.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The spread/ratio/profit data on October 21: the coil - to - rebar spread was 172.00 yuan/ton, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.96, the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.42, the rebar disk profit was - 116.43 yuan/ton, and the coking disk profit was 106.59 yuan/ton [1]. Spot Market - On October 21, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, Guangzhou rebar, Tangshan billet, and the Platts Index were 3210.00 yuan/ton, 3090.00 yuan/ton, 3230.00 yuan/ton, 2930.00 yuan/ton, and 104.50 respectively, with changes of 0.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, 10.00 yuan/ton, and - 0.80 [1]. - The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, Guangzhou hot - rolled coil, billet - to - product spread, and Rizhao Port PB were 3250.00 yuan/ton, 3300.00 yuan/ton, 3220.00 yuan/ton, 280.00 yuan/ton, and 776.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, - 30.00 yuan/ton, - 10.00 yuan/ton, and - 4.00 yuan/ton [1]. - The spot prices of Qingdao Port Super Special Powder, another powder, Ganjimao Coking Concentrate, Qingdao Port Quasi - First - Grade Coke, and Qingdao Port PB were 703.00 yuan/ton, 745.00 yuan/ton, 1310.00 yuan/ton, 1480.00 yuan/ton, and 780.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, 50.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, and 0.00 yuan/ton [1]. - The basis data on October 21: the HC main contract basis was 31.00 yuan/ton, the RB main contract basis was 163.00 yuan/ton, the I main contract basis was 48.00 yuan/ton, the J main contract basis was - 45.60 yuan/ton, and the JM main contract basis was 163.00 yuan/ton [1]. Market Analysis and Trading Strategies - Steel: The market is weakly stable and fluctuating. It is recommended to wait and see or adopt an oscillatory trading idea for single - side trading. Observe the opportunity to go long on the coil - to - rebar spread when the 01 - contract spread is below 150 for disk arbitrage. Roll and take profit for cash - and - carry reverse arbitrage [3]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: It is recommended to go long on ferrosilicon at low prices [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Wait and see for single - side trading [3]. - Iron Ore: Wait and see [3].