聚酯数据日报-20251022

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA supply is shrinking, but its processing fee remains low due to over - capacity from new device production. With the end of the peak season and concerns about trade - war impacts on textile demand, PTA's operating rate may decline further, and it's difficult to have an independent market due to falling crude oil prices [2] - For ethylene glycol, port inventory in East China is low, but domestic device production and expected decline in overseas imports put pressure on prices. With the end of the polyester peak season and a weakening crude oil fundamental, polyester is expected to run weakly [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Data Changes - INE crude oil rose from 435.8 yuan/barrel on Oct 20, 2025, to 437.7 yuan/barrel on Oct 21, 2025, an increase of 1.9 yuan [2] - PTA - SC increased from 1217.0 yuan/ton to 1233.2 yuan/ton, up 16.19 yuan; PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.3843 to 1.3877, an increase of 0.0034 [2] - CFR China PX increased from 783 to 784, and PX - naphtha spread rose from 246 to 247 [2] - PTA main contract futures price rose from 4384 yuan/ton to 4414 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; PTA spot price increased from 4315 yuan/ton to 4320 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] - PTA spot processing fee rose from 119.6 yuan/ton to 121.8 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.2 yuan; the disk processing fee increased from 188.6 yuan/ton to 215.8 yuan/ton, up 27.2 yuan [2] - MEG main contract futures price rose from 4003 yuan/ton to 4004 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan; MEG - naphtha decreased from - 102.16 yuan/ton to - 102.35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2 yuan [2] - MEG domestic price decreased from 4100 yuan/ton to 4075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan [2] b. Industry Chain Operating Rates - PX, PTA, MEG operating rates and polyester load remained unchanged at 84.62%, 76.95%, 65.39%, and 89.38% respectively [2] c. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150D/48F decreased from 6390 yuan/ton to 6340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; POY cash flow decreased from 77 to 31, a decrease of 46 [2] - FDY150D/96F remained unchanged at 6605 yuan/ton; FDY cash flow increased from - 208 to - 204, an increase of 4 [2] - DTY150D/48F decreased from 7740 yuan/ton to 7735 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; DTY cash flow decreased from 227 to 226, a decrease of 1 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased from 6355 yuan/ton to 6340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan; staple fiber cash flow decreased from 392 to 381, a decrease of 11 [2] - Semi - bright chip decreased from 5475 yuan/ton to 5465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; chip cash flow decreased from 62 to 56, a decrease of 6 [2] d. Product Sales Ratios - Long - filament sales ratio increased from 55% to 86%, an increase of 31% [2] - Staple - fiber sales ratio decreased from 68% to 66%, a decrease of 2% [2] - Chip sales ratio increased from 67% to 93%, an increase of 26% [2] e. Device Maintenance - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2]