Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market, with bond market offense favoring 10Y China Development Bank bonds, 30Y Treasury bonds, and 5Y capital bonds. It anticipates the 10Y Treasury bond yield to return to around 1.65% this year, the 30Y Treasury bond yield to reach 1.9%, and the 5Y large - bank secondary capital bond yield to move towards 1.9% [3]. Core Viewpoints - In Q3 2025, China's economy showed resilience in a complex environment, with a GDP year - on - year growth rate of 4.8%, reflecting the phased pressure during the transformation from old to new growth drivers. Service consumption growth, manufacturing upgrading, and export resilience supported economic structural optimization, while negative fixed - asset investment growth and the continuous decline of real estate development investment highlighted the weakness of the traditional growth model. In Q4, policy rate cuts and the implementation of incremental tools may be key support measures [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Economic Aggregate - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's economy showed strong resilience under double pressure, with GDP growing 5.2% year - on - year. In Q3, GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from Q2. The added value of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries was 5.8 trillion yuan, 36.4 trillion yuan, and 59.3 trillion yuan respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 3.8%, 4.9%, and 5.4%. The nominal GDP year - on - year growth rate dropped to 3.7% in Q3, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from Q2, and the divergence between nominal and real GDP growth continued [2]. 2. Price - The GDP deflator has been negative for 10 consecutive quarters. In the first three quarters, CPI decreased slightly by 0.1% year - on - year, with core CPI performing well at a 0.6% year - on - year increase. In September, core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding for five consecutive months, the first time in 19 months to reach 1%. PPI decreased by 2.8% year - on - year in the first three quarters, and the year - on - year decline has been narrowing in the past two months, with the decline in September narrowing to 2.3%, a 0.6 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, and the month - on - month rate remaining flat [2]. 3. Consumption - In Q3, consumption growth continued to decline, and social retail sales in Q4 may continue to face pressure, while service consumption remained outstanding. In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.2 trillion yuan, a 3.0% year - on - year increase, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, and it has declined for four consecutive months. From January to September, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year - on - year, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from January to August. Service retail sales maintained a year - on - year growth rate of over 5% since March 2025. In Q4 2025, consumption growth may face a high year - on - year base and continue to be under pressure [2]. 4. Investment - Fixed - asset investment has weakened for six consecutive months, with cumulative year - on - year negative growth for the first time since 1992 (excluding 2020). The decline in real estate development investment has expanded for seven consecutive months, being only slightly better than the extreme value in January - February 2020. Private investment has been negative for four consecutive months. Against the backdrop of local debt resolution and low general public budget revenue growth, the driving effect of infrastructure on the economy may continue to weaken, and the drag of real estate on the economy may persist [2][3]. 5. Exports - The year - on - year growth rate of exports exceeded expectations, possibly due to the low base in September last year. In the first three quarters, the total value of goods imports and exports was 33.6 trillion yuan, a 4.0% year - on - year increase. Exports increased by 7.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing. In September, the total value of goods trade imports and exports was 4.0 trillion yuan, an 8.0% year - on - year increase. However, due to the possible increase in Sino - US trade frictions and high export growth rates in October and December 2024, there may still be pressure on foreign trade in Q4 [2][3]. 6. Industrial Added Value - From January to September, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of large - scale industries was 6.2%, the same as that from January to August and 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In September, it increased by 6.5% year - on - year, a 1.3 - percentage - point increase from August and a 1.1 - percentage - point increase from September last year [2]. 7. Economic Outlook - In Q4, the downward pressure on the economy may increase. The use of policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may become more likely, and continuous attention should be paid to the continuity of incremental policies and signals of price level improvement [3]. 8. Bond Market - In September, the bond market deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. Currently, the bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is bullish on the bond market in October, and recommends 10Y China Development Bank bonds, 30Y Treasury bonds, and 5Y capital bonds. It is predicted that the 10Y Treasury bond yield will return to around 1.65% this year, the 30Y Treasury bond yield will reach 1.9%, and the 5Y large - bank secondary capital bond yield will move towards 1.9% [3].
出口强而消费及投资走弱，三季度GDP增速回落：2025年9月及三季度经济数据点评
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-10-22 05:11