航运衍生品数据日报-20251022

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The currently issued sanctions have little impact on European routes. European routes are in the regular year - end price - holding stage. The first round of defensive price - holding in late October to stop the price decline has shown initial results, and it has entered the second round in early November. There will be multiple rounds of year - end price - holding in the next two months, so the seasonal expectations are in advance. However, the changes in Sino - US relations, end - of - month loading conditions, and November empty - sailing situations need to be monitored. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - Spot Freight Index: The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is 1310, with a 12.92% increase; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 973, with a - 4.11% decrease. For different routes, SCFI - US West has a 31.88% increase, SCFIS - US West has a - 1.60% decrease, SCFI - US East has a 16.35% increase, SCFI - Northwest Europe has a 7.21% increase, SCFIS - Northwest Europe has a - 1.43% decrease, and SCFI - Mediterranean has a 3.53% increase [4]. - Contract Freight Index: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc., their current values range from 1135.0 to 1769.3, with corresponding increases of 2.31% - 5.19% [4]. - Position and Spread: Positions of different contracts have different changes, such as a decrease of 32 in EC2606 position and an increase of 2333 in EC2412 position. The month - spreads of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 have changes of - 52.4, 41.3, and 78.6 respectively [4]. 3.2 Spot Price - In late October, Maersk's quote was 1800 - 1900, HPL's was 1900, CMA's was 2100, etc. In early November, HPL's quote was 2500, CM's was 2800, etc [6]. 3.3 International News - US Vice - President J.D. Vance is expected to visit Israel next Tuesday to promote the implementation of the cease - fire agreement in the Gaza war. There are still uncertainties about "Hamas disarmament" and "Gaza demilitarization" [5]. - Egypt claims to have lost over $9 billion due to Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping [5]. - The US may soon announce a long list of tariff exemptions, and intense lobbying is expected [5]. - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia next week to prevent the escalation of the Sino - US tariff war [5]. - White House envoy Steve Witkoff will go to the Middle East to follow up on the Gaza agreement [5]. - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has postponed the discussion of the "Net Zero Framework" (NZF) by one year [13].