中辉能化观点-20251022

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the energy and chemical industry is "Cautiously Bearish," with only natural gas having a "Cautiously Bullish" rating [1][2][3][5] 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes various energy and chemical products, suggesting most face downward pressure due to factors like supply - demand imbalances and cost - side weakness. Natural gas is an exception, with potential price increases due to rising demand [1][2][5] 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [1] - Main Logic: Off - season supply surplus is the core driver. There are expectations of easing in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, continuous inventory build - up in the US during the consumption off - season, and plans by OPEC+ to expand production in November, increasing supply surplus pressure [1] - Strategy: Partially take profit on short positions, and focus on the range of [435 - 445] for SC [1][9] LPG - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [1] - Main Logic: The cost side (crude oil) is weak, downstream chemical demand is falling, the basis is weakening, supply is relatively sufficient with rising factory inventories, and downstream chemical operating rates are decreasing [1] - Strategy: Lightly short, and focus on the range of [4050 - 4150] for PG [14] L (Linear Low - Density Polyethylene) - Core View: Bearish Continuation [1] - Main Logic: Social inventory is slowly decreasing, but futures and spot prices remain weak. Imports are expected to increase, new production capacity is coming online, and although it's the demand peak season, restocking motivation is insufficient [1][18] - Strategy: Industries should sell - hedge on price increases, and hold short positions cautiously, focusing on the range of [6800 - 7000] [18] PP (Polypropylene) - Core View: Bearish Consolidation [1] - Main Logic: Short - term supply and demand are both weakening, with increased upstream device maintenance and weak demand at the end of the peak season. Oil - based cost support is insufficient, but PDH profit has improved [1][23] - Strategy: Industries should sell - hedge on price increases, hold short positions cautiously, and focus on the range of [6500 - 6700] [23] PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) - Core View: Bearish Consolidation [1] - Main Logic: Warehouse receipts have increased significantly, domestic demand is weak due to falling real - estate prices, export growth may not be sustainable under anti - dumping policies, and supply remains abundant [1][27] - Strategy: Given the weak supply - demand situation and low absolute prices, be cautious about short - chasing, and focus on the range of [4600 - 4800] [27] PX (Para - xylene) - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [1] - Main Logic: Supply - side domestic and overseas devices have slightly reduced their loads, demand is currently weak but expected to improve. PXN and PX - MX spreads are at certain levels, and the cost side (crude oil and naphtha) is under pressure [1][28] - Strategy: Take profit on short positions at low prices, and look for opportunities to short on price increases, focusing on the range of [6280 - 6380] [29] PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Main Logic: Devices are under planned maintenance, a new device is about to be put into operation, supply - side load is expected to rise. Downstream polyester and terminal weaving operating rates are slightly differentiated, with polyester inventory accumulating. Cost side is under pressure [2][31] - Strategy: Take profit on short positions at low prices due to low valuations and processing fees, and look for opportunities to short on price increases in the C - structured term, focusing on the range of [4390 - 4460] [32] MEG (Monoethylene Glycol) - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Main Logic: Domestic devices have increased their loads, overseas devices have changed little, terminal consumption has improved slightly but is under pressure. New device production and the resumption of maintenance devices have increased supply, and inventory has slightly accumulated [2][34] - Strategy: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to short on price rebounds, focusing on the range of [3970 - 4030] [35] Methanol - Core View: Cautiously Bearish, with potential long - term bullish factors [2] - Main Logic: High inventory suppresses spot prices, port basis is still weak. Supply - side domestic device maintenance has increased, and although some Iranian imports are affected, the overall supply pressure in October is still large. Demand has no obvious positive factors [2][37] - Strategy: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [37] Urea - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Main Logic: Supply is relatively abundant, demand is weak domestically but export is relatively good. Inventory is continuously accumulating and at a high level in the past five years, and cost support exists [2][41] - Strategy: The fundamental situation is weak, so hold short positions carefully, and consider lightly going long in the medium - to - long - term [2] Natural Gas - Core View: Cautiously Bullish [5] - Main Logic: As the temperature drops, demand is expected to pick up, and the consumption peak season is approaching. Although the supply side is sufficient, demand support is strong [5] Asphalt - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [5] - Main Logic: Cost - side crude oil supply surplus pressure is increasing, and the price center is moving down. Asphalt supply and demand are generally loose [5] Glass - Core View: Bearish Continuation [5] - Main Logic: Real - estate prices are falling, domestic demand is weak, post - holiday factory inventory has increased, and supply is under pressure [5] Soda Ash - Core View: Bearish Continuation [5] - Main Logic: Post - holiday factory inventory has continuously increased, supply is in a loose pattern, and demand is mostly rigid [5]