近期黄金调整快评：黄金的长期牛市与短期节奏

Market Movement - Gold prices experienced a significant drop of up to 6.3% from October 21 to 22, marking the largest single-day decline in 12 years[2] - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to various factors including rumors surrounding the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, easing US-China trade tensions, and the reopening of the US government[3] Trading Structure - Unlike the previous surge in early 2023, central banks, particularly the People's Bank of China, did not participate in the recent gold price increase, indicating a more fragile trading structure[4] - The current gold price increase has been primarily driven by investors and speculators, with a notable expansion in ETF sizes accompanying the rise[4][7] Technical Indicators - Gold prices have reached the upper limit of three standard deviations, suggesting a natural technical correction is due[8] - The implied volatility of gold ETFs has surged, often indicating a potential turning point or exhaustion of the current trend[8][12] Long-term Outlook - The long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, supported by factors such as the restructuring of the global monetary credit system, de-dollarization trends, and ongoing central bank purchases[13] - Historical data shows that after a nine-week consecutive rise, gold prices typically experience a correction ranging from 20% to 40% over the following year[13] Historical Performance - An analysis of past instances where gold rose for nine consecutive weeks reveals maximum declines of 17% to 42% in subsequent periods, with the largest drop occurring 148 trading days later[16]