中美关税疑云再起，重点行业节能降碳支持管理办法印发

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Views - The chemical sector experienced a decline of 5.83% from October 13 to October 17, 2025, ranking 26th among all sectors, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.36 percentage points [6][24] - The report highlights a continued trend of divergence in the chemical industry in 2025, recommending focus on sectors such as synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector's performance was ranked 26th with a decline of 5.83% during the specified week, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.47% [6][24] - The top three performing sectors were banking (4.89%), coal (4.17%), and food and beverage (0.86%), while the bottom three were electronics (-7.14%), media (-6.27%), and automotive (-5.99%) [24][25] Key Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of U.S.-China trade tensions, particularly the U.S. imposing additional tariffs on Chinese goods, which has led to increased uncertainty in the global chemical supply chain [37] - It notes that the chemical industry in China is considering a comprehensive restructuring to phase out outdated and loss-making plants as part of a broader strategy to enhance competitiveness [37] Recommendations - Focus on synthetic biology, which is expected to see significant growth due to the shift towards low-energy products and materials [6] - The upcoming quota policy for third-generation refrigerants is anticipated to create a high-growth cycle, benefiting companies with high quota shares [7] - The electronic specialty gases market is highlighted as a critical area for domestic substitution opportunities, driven by rapid upgrades in the semiconductor industry [8][10] - Light hydrocarbon chemicals are identified as a global trend, with a shift towards lighter raw materials expected to reshape the industry [10] - The COC polymer sector is noted for its accelerated domestic industrialization, with potential breakthroughs expected from local companies [11] - The potassium fertilizer market is projected to recover as international supply constraints ease, with companies like Nutrien and Canpotex reducing production [12] - The MDI market is characterized by oligopolistic supply dynamics, with a positive outlook as demand recovers [14]