宏观经济宏观季报：减速提质，中国经济换挡前行

Economic Growth - In Q3 2025, China's nominal GDP was approximately 35.5 trillion yuan, with a real GDP growth of 4.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from Q2[1] - The cumulative GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 5.2%, exceeding the annual target, indicating a stable economic foundation[2] - The contribution of final consumption, capital formation, and net exports to GDP growth in Q3 was 2.7, 0.9, and 1.2 percentage points, respectively, with contribution rates of 56.6%, 18.9%, and 24.5%[1] Sector Performance - The first, second, and third industries' nominal GDP in Q3 were approximately 2.7 trillion, 12.5 trillion, and 20.3 trillion yuan, with real growth rates of 4.0%, 4.2%, and 5.4% respectively[1] - Industrial value added maintained moderate growth, while traditional sectors like construction are undergoing significant adjustments, reflecting a structural transformation in the economy[2] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.5%, while retail sales increased by 3.0% year-on-year, and exports rose by 8.3% year-on-year[5] - The decline in capital formation's contribution to GDP growth indicates a slowdown in infrastructure and real estate investments, which fell significantly in Q3[17] Policy Outlook - The government is expected to focus more on "investing in people" and stimulating domestic demand, as the importance of real estate and infrastructure investment in economic statistics decreases[3] - There is potential for fiscal policy to provide significant support, with over 1 trillion yuan in excess deposits available for use in Q4[29] Risks - There are risks associated with reduced policy stimulus and uncertainties in overseas economic policies, which could impact future growth[4][36]