蛋白数据日报-20251022

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - The uncertainty of Sino-US trade policy and the reality of loose domestic soybean meal supply bring pessimistic market expectations. However, the current poor profit of domestic ship purchases is expected to affect the progress of ship purchases. It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the unilateral market. Later, attention should be paid to Sino-US policies and South American weather [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - The basis of the main contract of soybean meal in Dalian on October 21 was 111, up 6; in Tianjin it was 91; in Rizhao it was 81. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Zhangjiagang was 11, in Dongguan was 11, in Zhanjiang was 61, up 6, and in Fangcheng was 61, up 6. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 85, down 4, and MJ - 5 was 146, down 13 [6]. 3.2 Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 419, up 2; the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal on the main contract was 568, up 23 [7]. 3.3 Supply Situation - Affected by less rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas after August, the estimated yield per acre of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season by USDA still has some room for downward adjustment. Due to the US government shutdown, the USDA crop growth report was postponed. Brazilian soybean planting has started, and as of October 14, the sowing rate was 11.1%, higher than 9.1% of the same period last year but lower than the five - year average of 16.9%. In October, domestic soybeans are expected to start destocking, but the domestic soybean meal supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, and the source of supplementation is uncertain [8][9]. 3.4 Demand Situation - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, and the capacity reduction is not obvious, which supports the feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio and a high feed addition ratio, but the downstream trading volume of soybean meal is light, and the pick - up is good [9]. 3.5 Inventory Situation - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level. This week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased due to the holiday, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory of feed enterprises decreased [9].