有色金属周报：氧化铝与电解铝及铝合金：关税不确定性和国内社库缓降或使铝价震荡-20251022

Report Title - Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Aluminum Alloys [1] Report Date and Authors - Date: October 22, 2025 - Authors: Wang Wenhu, Dong Xiaoni, Zhang Lei from Hongyuan Futures' Metal Research Team [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Tariff uncertainties and a slow decline in domestic social inventories may cause aluminum prices to fluctuate. For alumina, the supply - demand is expected to be loose, but production losses may limit price drops. For electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloys, uncertainties in Sino - US trade tariffs exist, but expectations of Fed rate cuts and reduced tapering, along with other factors, may lead to prices first weakening and then strengthening [2][4][5][6] Summary by Section 1. Alumina - Supply - side factors: New projects like the bauxite recycling in Qingzhen, the spherical alumina project of Yishitong, and the alumina projects in Guangxi and Indonesia are expected to increase production in October. Domestic bauxite production may increase while imports decrease due to new bauxite mines' production [3] - Cost and price: The average full - cost of alumina production is around 2850 yuan/ton, with regional differences. The near - far month contract prices show a Contango structure [22] - Inventory: The total inventory of alumina in China increased last week, with an increase in the warehouse and factory inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and a decrease in port inventories [15] - Investment strategy: Due to the expected loose supply - demand but limited price decline space, investors are advised to short at high prices and pay attention to support and resistance levels [4] 2. Electrolytic Aluminum - Supply - side factors: The theoretical weighted average full - cost is about 16150 yuan/ton. Domestic production may increase in October due to new projects, and imports may also rise with the commissioning of overseas projects [5][57] - Inventory: Social inventories, bonded area inventories, and inventories in major exchanges all decreased last week [46] - Investment strategy: Considering tariff uncertainties, Fed policies, and production trends, investors are advised to go long on dips and pay attention to support and resistance levels for both SHFE and LME aluminum [5] 3. Aluminum Alloys - Supply - side factors: Overseas waste aluminum exports to China may decline, but domestic waste aluminum production may increase. The production of primary and secondary aluminum alloys may decrease in October [6][83] - Cost and profit: The full - cost of primary and secondary aluminum alloys is 20800 yuan/ton and 20500 yuan/ton respectively, with different profit and capacity utilization trends [6] - Inventory: Social inventories and raw material and finished - product inventories of recycled aluminum decreased last week [84][86] - Investment strategy: Given tariff uncertainties and supply - demand trends, investors are advised to go long on the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloys at low prices and pay attention to support and resistance levels [6] 4. Basis and Spread Analysis - Alumina: The basis is positive and within a reasonable range, and the spread is negative. Investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [12] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The SHFE aluminum basis is positive and the spread is negative. The LME aluminum (0 - 3) spread is positive and (3 - 15) is negative. Investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [40][43] - Aluminum Alloys: The casting aluminum alloy basis is positive and at a relatively high level, and the spread is negative. Investors are recommended to short the basis at high prices on a short - term and light - position basis. The spread between electrolytic aluminum and casting aluminum alloy futures is positive, and investors are advised to go long on the spread at low prices [67][70]