20251022申万期货有色金属基差日报-20251022

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may be on the strong side, while zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [2] - For copper, the concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. The power grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales are increasing, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real - estate market remains weak. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices [2] - For zinc, the short - term zinc concentrate processing fee has generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. The inventory of galvanized sheets has increased on a weekly basis. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are increasing, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real - estate market remains weak. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and overall, zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Copper - Night - session copper prices closed lower. The concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow. The Indonesian mine accident may cause a global copper supply - demand gap, long - term supporting copper prices. Suggest to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - The previous domestic futures closing price was 85,380 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 15 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 10,597 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 30.22 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 137,175 tons, and the daily change was - 50 tons [2] Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. LME low inventory has led to a significant spot premium. Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and overall, zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. Suggest to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - The previous domestic futures closing price was 21,855 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 85 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,994 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 299.34 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 37,325 tons, and the daily change was - 700 tons [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,890 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 0 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,781 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 1.36 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 487,125 tons, and the daily change was - 4,100 tons [2] - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 120,710 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,680 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,210 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 206.29 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 250,476 tons, and the daily change was - 54 tons [2] - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,060 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 195 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,993 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 39.69 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 247,300 tons, and the daily change was - 3,100 tons [2] - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 279,340 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 350 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 35,475 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 56.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 2,735 tons, and the daily change was 0 tons [2]