首席点评：贵金属出现大幅回调

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment ratings for industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Financial Market: After a high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is entering a phase of direction selection. The market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter. The bond market is supported by the expected implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy [11][12]. - Energy and Chemicals: The decline in oil prices is due to geopolitical stability and the end of the demand peak. Methanol, rubber, polyolefins, glass, and soda ash markets have their own supply - demand characteristics and are affected by factors such as inventory and international trade [2][14][15]. - Metals: Precious metals have experienced a sharp correction after a rapid rise. The copper market is affected by supply shortages, and the zinc market may fluctuate within a range. The lithium carbonate market is currently in a short - term volatile state [20][21][22]. - Black Metals: The double - coking market is expected to oscillate at a high level, the iron ore market is expected to be oscillating and bullish, and the steel market is expected to be bullish in the medium term [24][26][27]. - Agricultural Products: The protein meal market is expected to oscillate, the oil market is under short - term pressure, the sugar market is expected to oscillate, and the cotton market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [28][29][30]. - Shipping Index: The container shipping European line market is expected to have an upward drive, and the far - month contract is slowly recovering [33]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - International News: The net financial assets of EU member states have declined compared to previous periods, indicating a deterioration in the financial situation [6]. - Domestic News: The central bank will accelerate the legislation in key and emerging fields to improve the financial legal system [7]. - Industry News: As of the end of June 2025, the total asset management scale of the trust industry in China reached 32.43 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 20.11% [8]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The S&P 500 and the European STOXX 50 had little change. The FTSE China A50 futures rose by 1.62%, the US dollar index rose by 0.35%, ICE Brent crude oil rose by 1.18%, London gold fell by 5.31%, and London silver fell by 7.11% [10]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - Financial Products - Stock Index: After a high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is in a phase of direction selection. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and the market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [11]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bonds generally rose. The central bank's open - market operations increased liquidity, and the market expects the central bank to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the fourth quarter [12][13]. - Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: SC crude oil rose at night. The decline in oil prices is due to geopolitical stability and the end of the demand peak. The reaction of OPEC in November is crucial [2][14]. - Methanol: Methanol rose at night. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory increased. The market is volatile due to various uncertainties [15]. - Rubber: Rubber rebounded on Tuesday. Supply pressure may increase in the later stage, and demand support is limited. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [16]. - Polyolefins: Polyolefin futures continued to be weak, affected by factors such as crude oil prices and inventory digestion [17]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass and soda ash futures continued to be weak. The market is in the process of inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to consumption in autumn and policy changes [18][19]. - Metals - Precious Metals: Precious metals declined significantly. The market is waiting for the China - US trade talks, and the Fed's monetary policy and the US government shutdown also affect the market [20]. - Copper: The copper price closed lower at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap in the long term [21]. - Zinc: The zinc price rose at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrates has increased, and the market may fluctuate within a range [22]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate market is in a short - term volatile state. The fundamentals are improving, but there is still a possibility of project resumption [23]. - Black Metals - Double - Coking: The double - coking market oscillated narrowly at night. The high iron - water output provides support for the price, but the possibility of blast furnace production reduction cannot be ignored [24][25]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore price is weak. The demand for iron ore is supported by strong steel production, and the global iron ore shipment has decreased recently [26]. - Steel: The steel price is stable and rising. The supply pressure is increasing, and the market is expected to be bullish in the medium term [27]. - Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: The protein meal market oscillated downward at night. The US soybean export inspection volume increased, and the Brazilian soybean planting is progressing. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [28]. - Oils: The oil market is weak at night. The increase in Malaysian palm oil exports provides some support, but the market is under pressure due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade [29]. - Sugar: The sugar market oscillated at night. The global sugar market is in the inventory accumulation stage, and the domestic sugar market is expected to oscillate in the short term [30]. - Cotton: The cotton market is oscillating strongly. The US cotton market is affected by the government shutdown, and the domestic cotton market is supported by factors such as the slowdown of machine - picking progress and the rise in seed cotton purchase prices [32]. - Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The container shipping European line market is strong in the morning. Maersk's price increase in November indicates its intention to support prices, and the market is waiting for other shipping companies' actions and the progress of the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiation [33].