日度策略参考-20251022

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Carbonate Lithium [1] - Bearish: Aluminum Oxide, Glass, Asphalt [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Precious Metals, Silver, Electrolytic Aluminum, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Bean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Fuel Oil, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, PF, PVC, High - Concentration Alkali [1] - Wait - and - See: Crude Oil, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1] Core Views - In the short term, the stock index is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US leaders' meeting during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of the month. The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - Market risk appetite recovery may suppress precious metals, but factors such as the continued US government shutdown and the expected interest rate cut by the Fed in October will support the gold price, so the gold price is expected to enter an oscillating trend [1]. - Global trade frictions are repeated, copper prices fluctuate more, and with the continuous fermentation of copper mine supply disturbances and the improvement of macro - liquidity at home and abroad, copper prices are expected to run strongly [1]. - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are mixed, and the price is expected to oscillate. The domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released, and the fundamentals are weak, putting pressure on the spot price [1]. - The US government shutdown continues, increasing macro - risks. Although the Sino - US trade situation has eased, there are still subsequent disturbances. The short - term opening of the export window has supported the domestic zinc price [1]. - The Sino - US trade friction has slightly eased, and attention should be paid to the statements and negotiation progress of both sides. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut at the end of the month remains high. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and attention should be paid to the quota approval in 2026 in the fourth quarter [1]. - The short - term substantial impact of Indonesia's ban on ore exports is not large, but the supply risk of tin ore is expected to be strong, and the demand is supported by the AI trend, so it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - to - long term [1]. - The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy storage demand is strong. Although the supply production has increased, the overall demand is large, so the price of carbonate lithium is bullish [1]. - The industrial drivers of rebar and hot - rolled coil are not clear, and the valuation is low, so it is not recommended to participate in directional trading. The near - month iron ore is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for the far - month [1]. - The direct demand for manganese silicon is good, but the supply is high, the inventory is at a high level, and the price is under pressure to oscillate. The short - term production profit of ferrosilicon is not good, the cost support is strengthening, the direct demand is good, and there are macro - level benefits [1]. - The supply and demand of glass are supported, and in the short term, sentiment is the main factor. The downward space of the price is limited, and the price fluctuation is strengthening. Soda ash follows glass, with a large supply surplus pressure and the price under pressure [1]. - The news that Indonesia will regulate (reduce) exports to meet the raw material demand for B50 next year has a bullish support for the far - month palm oil contracts. The high inventory in Malaysia in September and high exports in October are intertwined, and the near - month lacks new drivers for the time being [1]. - The Sino - US trade dispute is repeated. The selling pressure of US soybeans restricts the US soybean price, which brings pressure to the domestic soybean oil price from the cost side. However, the expectation of soybean oil inventory reduction also supports the market [1]. - The Canadian foreign minister's visit to China is expected to negotiate on the anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed, which may bring bearish speculation. The domestic rapeseed is still in short supply, and the rapeseed oil inventory is continuously decreasing from a high level [1]. - The expansion of Xinjiang's cotton spinning capacity and the decrease in spinning profits lead to great uncertainty in the cotton demand in the new year. The current futures price has fully priced in the selling pressure of new crops, and the downward space is limited, but the new crop basis and futures price may continue to be under pressure [1]. - Typhoons around the National Day have an adverse impact on the sugarcane harvest and output in South China. There is a seasonal upward momentum for sugar prices in the short term, but the rebound space is limited after the new sugar is launched [1]. - The uncertainty of Sino - US trade policy and the abundant domestic soybean meal supply bring a pessimistic market expectation, but the current poor profitability of domestic soybean purchases may affect the purchase progress, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish on the single - side [1]. - The trading logic of pulp lies in the trading of old warehouse receipts of the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the futures price is under great pressure [1]. - The spot price of logs is firm, and it is not cost - effective to short after the futures price drops sharply, so it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - The spot price of live pigs has stabilized, but it is necessary to wait for changes in the slaughter volume and weight. The futures price is still at a premium to the spot price, and the short - term trend is uncertain [1]. - OPEC+ continues to increase production, the geopolitical situation cools down, the demand enters the off - season, and the US attitude towards tariffs on China softens, so the prices of crude oil and fuel oil are expected to be bearish or oscillate [1]. - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of asphalt is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan for construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1]. - US tariffs affect the demand for natural rubber, the weather in the producing areas is gradually normal, the supply is expected to increase, and the overall atmosphere in the commodity market is weak [1]. - OPEC+ continues to increase production, but the fundamentals of butadiene are tight. The supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, the downstream trading is weakening, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction [1]. - The fundamentals and sentiment of PTA are declining, the PXN has significantly rebounded, and the domestic PTA production has decreased due to unit inspections [1]. - The port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China is still low, the overseas import is expected to decline, and the domestic unit commissioning is putting pressure on the price. After the National Day, the peak season for polyester is coming to an end [1]. - The short - fiber plants are gradually resuming production, the willingness to deliver warehouse receipts has weakened, and the short - fiber price continues to fluctuate closely with the cost [1]. - The price of benzene in Asia is still weak, the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have decreased, the arbitrage window from Northeast Asia to the US is still closed, and the future inventory of styrene is expected to accumulate further [1]. - The export sentiment of urea has eased, the domestic demand is insufficient, and there is support from anti - involution policies and the cost side [1]. - The price center of the crude oil market has slightly declined, the maintenance intensity has weakened, the downstream demand is slowly increasing, and the price of PF is oscillating strongly [1]. - The support of maintenance for some products is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the futures price returns to the fundamentals and oscillates weakly [1]. - The PVC futures price returns to the fundamentals, the maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period, the supply pressure is large, and there are many near - month warehouse receipts, so the futures price oscillates weakly [1]. - Many alumina projects in Guangxi are planned to be put into production, the subsequent maintenance concentration is decreasing, the digestion of warehouse receipts is not smooth, and the price of high - concentration alkali is inverted [1]. - OPEC's production increase, the weakening of international CP/FEI prices, and the tight domestic butane fundamentals drive the valuation repair of PG prices [1]. - The price of container shipping to Europe has fallen to a relatively low level, and there is a possibility of a low - level rebound. It is gradually entering the contract - changing rhythm, and the freight rate is close to the full - cost line, so it is expected to stop falling and stabilize [1] Summaries by Catalog Macro - Finance - Stock Index: Expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, pay attention to the Sino - US leaders' meeting during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of the month and the repeated tariff policies [1] - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1] - Precious Metals: Market risk appetite recovery may suppress precious metals, but factors such as the continued US government shutdown and the expected interest rate cut by the Fed in October will support the gold price, so it is expected to enter an oscillating trend [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Global trade frictions are repeated, copper prices fluctuate more, and with the continuous fermentation of copper mine supply disturbances and the improvement of macro - liquidity at home and abroad, copper prices are expected to run strongly [1] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The fundamentals are mixed, and the price is expected to oscillate [1] - Aluminum Oxide: The domestic production capacity continues to be released, and the fundamentals are weak, putting pressure on the spot price [1] - Zinc: The US government shutdown continues, increasing macro - risks. Although the Sino - US trade situation has eased, there are still subsequent disturbances. The short - term opening of the export window has supported the domestic zinc price [1] - Stainless Steel: The Sino - US trade friction has slightly eased, and attention should be paid to the statements and negotiation progress of both sides. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut at the end of the month remains high. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and attention should be paid to the quota approval in 2026 in the fourth quarter [1] - Tin: The short - term substantial impact of Indonesia's ban on ore exports is not large, but the supply risk of tin ore is expected to be strong, and the demand is supported by the AI trend, so it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - to - long term [1] - Silicon: Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, Southwest start - up is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened. Polysilicon production in October has increased more than expected, and the demand for organic silicon is weak [1] - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the medium - to - long term. In October, the supply increases while the demand decreases, and the anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, so the market sentiment has subsided [1] - Carbonate Lithium: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy storage demand is strong. Although the supply production has increased, the overall demand is large, so it is bullish [1] Ferrous Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The industrial drivers are not clear, and the valuation is low, so it is not recommended to participate in directional trading [1] - Iron Ore: The near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for the far - month [1] - Manganese Silicon: The direct demand is good, but the supply is high, the inventory is at a high level, and the price is under pressure to oscillate [1] - Ferrosilicon: The short - term production profit is not good, the cost support is strengthening, the direct demand is good, and there are macro - level benefits [1] - Glass: The supply and demand are supported, and in the short term, sentiment is the main factor. The downward space of the price is limited, and the price fluctuation is strengthening [1] - Soda Ash: Follows glass, with a large supply surplus pressure and the price under pressure [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: After the price rebounded to fill the gap before the holiday, it reached a relatively high level. It may challenge the previous highs again, but the difficulty of breakthrough is large. It depends on whether there are new statements about "anti - involution" in the domestic important meeting communique this week [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The news that Indonesia will regulate (reduce) exports to meet the raw material demand for B50 next year has a bullish support for the far - month contracts. The high inventory in Malaysia in September and high exports in October are intertwined, and the near - month lacks new drivers for the time being [1] - Soybean Oil: The Sino - US trade dispute is repeated. The selling pressure of US soybeans restricts the US soybean price, which brings pressure to the domestic soybean oil price from the cost side. However, the expectation of soybean oil inventory reduction also supports the market [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The Canadian foreign minister's visit to China is expected to negotiate on the anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed, which may bring bearish speculation. The domestic rapeseed is still in short supply, and the rapeseed oil inventory is continuously decreasing from a high level [1] - Cotton: The expansion of Xinjiang's cotton spinning capacity and the decrease in spinning profits lead to great uncertainty in the cotton demand in the new year. The current futures price has fully priced in the selling pressure of new crops, and the downward space is limited, but the new crop basis and futures price may continue to be under pressure [1] - Sugar: Typhoons around the National Day have an adverse impact on the sugarcane harvest and output in South China. There is a seasonal upward momentum for sugar prices in the short term, but the rebound space is limited after the new sugar is launched [1] - Corn: The market is concerned about the selling pressure of the spot in the producing areas after the end of October. However, the acquisition attitude towards high - quality corn in Northeast China is positive, and the downward space of the C01 contract is expected to be limited [1] - Bean Meal: The uncertainty of Sino - US trade policy and the abundant domestic soybean meal supply bring a pessimistic market expectation, but the current poor profitability of domestic soybean purchases may affect the purchase progress, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish on the single - side [1] - Pulp: The trading logic lies in the trading of old warehouse receipts of the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the futures price is under great pressure [1] - Logs: The spot price is firm, and it is not cost - effective to short after the futures price drops sharply, so it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Live Pigs: The spot price has stabilized, but it is necessary to wait for changes in the slaughter volume and weight. The futures price is still at a premium to the spot price, and the short - term trend is uncertain [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: OPEC+ continues to increase production, the geopolitical situation cools down, the demand enters the off - season, and the US attitude towards tariffs on China softens, so the prices are expected to be bearish or oscillate [1] - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan for construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - Natural Rubber: US tariffs affect the demand, the weather in the producing areas is gradually normal, the supply is expected to increase, and the overall atmosphere in the commodity market is weak [1] - BR Rubber: OPEC+ continues to increase production, but the fundamentals of butadiene are tight. The supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, the downstream trading is weakening, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction [1] - PTA: The fundamentals and sentiment are declining, the PXN has significantly rebounded, and the domestic PTA production has decreased due to unit inspections [1] - Ethylene Glycol: The port inventory in East China is still low, the overseas import is expected to decline, and the domestic unit commissioning is putting pressure on the price. After the National Day, the peak season for polyester is coming to an end [1] - Short Fiber: The plants are gradually resuming production, the willingness to deliver warehouse receipts has weakened, and the price continues to fluctuate closely with the cost [1] - Styrene: The price of benzene in Asia is still weak, the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have decreased, the arbitrage window from Northeast Asia to the US is still closed, and the future inventory is expected to accumulate further [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, the domestic demand is insufficient, and there is support from anti - involution policies and the cost side [1] - PF: The price center of the crude oil market has slightly declined, the maintenance intensity has weakened, the downstream demand is slowly increasing, and the price oscillates strongly [1] - PVC: The futures price returns to the fundamentals, the maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period, the supply pressure is large, and there are many near - month warehouse receipts, so it oscillates weakly [1] - High - Concentration Alkali: Many alumina