2025Q3信用债复盘：科创债ETF添暖意，信用利差走势分化

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information available in the provided content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In Q3 2025, credit bonds were initially strong due to the return of wealth - management funds and the listing of the first batch of 10 science - innovation bond ETFs. However, due to factors such as the "anti - involution" policy and the extension of Sino - US tariffs, the bond market was in a headwind. Credit bond yields fluctuated upwards, with short - term spreads narrowing slightly and medium - and long - term spreads widening significantly [2][9] - In the third quarter, there were significant events in different sectors. In the urban investment sector, the work of clearing arrears accelerated, and the use of debt - resolution quotas was advanced. In the real estate sector, Vanke sought to relieve debt pressure, and policies focused on releasing and meeting the improvement needs of the public. In the financial sector, there was the first - ever default of an insurance company's bond, and measures for the high - quality development of sub - industries were introduced [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 2025Q3 Credit Bond Market - At the beginning of Q3 2025, credit bonds were strong due to the return of wealth - management funds and the listing of the first batch of 10 science - innovation bond ETFs. However, due to the "anti - involution" policy and other factors, the risk appetite of the market recovered, the stock - bond seesaw effect was obvious, and institutional redemptions were repeated. Credit bond yields fluctuated upwards, with short - term spreads narrowing slightly and medium - and long - term spreads widening significantly [9] - From mid - July to September, various policies supported the recovery of risk appetite, the stock - bond seesaw effect was strengthened, and credit spreads first widened actively to the quarterly high, then narrowed passively, and widened actively again at the end of the quarter [14] 2025Q3 Major Events Urban Investment - In 2025, about 1.99 trillion yuan of the 2 - trillion - yuan replacement bonds had been issued. In Q3, the clearance of arrears accelerated, using fiscal and financial means. The non - standard risk events of urban investment decreased quarter - on - quarter, and Inner Mongolia withdrew from the list of key provinces [2][15][24] - The central government affirmed the debt - resolution achievements of the package debt - resolution plan and put forward requirements for subsequent debt - resolution work, including using debt - resolution quotas in advance and maintaining a "zero - tolerance" high - pressure supervision attitude towards hidden debts [3][26][29] Real Estate - Vanke sought to reduce the interest rate of its domestic non - public debt and postponed the payment of some interest. Its business was still under pressure, but its major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, continued to provide active borrowing support, and the short - term bond default risk might be controllable [3][35] - Central - level policies focused on consolidating the stabilization of the real estate market, building a new real - estate development model, and releasing and meeting the improvement needs of the public [3][37] Finance - Jilin issued 26 billion yuan of special bonds to supplement the capital of small and medium - sized banks, and Tianan Property & Casualty Insurance's 5.3 - billion - yuan bond defaulted, which was the first - ever default of an insurance company's bond [4][40] - Central policies focused on promoting the high - quality development of sub - industries such as local asset management companies, commercial bank merger and acquisition loans, and trust companies to serve the real economy and prevent financial risks [4][42] Others - 24 science - innovation bond ETFs were listed, with a total scale of over 250 billion yuan by the end of September. The trading of the first batch was relatively active, while the market sentiment was relatively weak when the second batch was listed [4][46] - The scope of domestic investors in the "Southbound Bond Connect" may be expanded to four types of non - bank institutions, and the annual quota may be increased to 1 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Clearing House will optimize the "Magnolia Bond" mechanism, and Futian Investment Holdings issued RWA bonds, providing a new model for bond issuance [4][48][49] Credit Bond Primary and Secondary Market Review Primary Market - In the first three quarters of 2025, the net financing of credit bonds increased year - on - year. Industrial bonds and financial bonds were the main supply forces, while urban investment bonds continued to shrink. The net financing of industrial bonds was 1.69 trillion yuan, that of urban investment bonds was - 158.3 billion yuan, and that of financial bonds was 1.17 trillion yuan [50] Secondary Market - In Q3 2025, credit bond yields increased across the board, with medium - and long - term yields rising more significantly. Credit spreads showed a differentiated trend, with short - term spreads narrowing slightly and medium - and long - term spreads widening significantly. Among different sectors, urban investment bonds and bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds performed relatively weakly, while real estate bonds and cyclical bonds performed well [57]