银河期货油脂日报-20251022

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a research report on agricultural products in the commodities sector, specifically focusing on the daily situation of oils and fats on October 22, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - Short - term, the oil and fat market is expected to be slightly weak and volatile. It's advisable to wait and see, and consider buying on significant dips [9] Group 4: Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on the 2601 contract were 8238, 9164, and 9834 respectively, with price changes of (56), (130), and (30). The spot basis varied by region and variety, with some showing no change and others having small fluctuations [3] - Monthly Spread Closing Prices: For the 1 - 5 monthly spread, soybean oil was 170 with a change of (10), palm oil was 26 with a change of 14, and rapeseed oil was 386 with a change of 28 [3] - Cross - Variety Spreads: For the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was (926) with a change of 74, the OI - Y spread was 1596 with a change of 26, the OI - P spread was 670 with a change of 100, and the oil - meal ratio was 2.86 with a change of (0.02) [3] - Import Profits: The CNF price of 24 - degree palm oil was 1102 with a profit of (172) for the November shipment from Malaysia and Indonesia. The FOB price of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was 1085 with a profit of (822) for the November shipment [3] - Weekly Commercial Inventories: In the 42nd week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 122.4, 57.6, and 54.9 million tons respectively. Compared with last week, soybean oil decreased by 4.11 million tons, palm oil increased by 2.81 million tons, and rapeseed oil decreased by 2.2 million tons [3] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis International Market - MPOA estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20 increased by 10.77% month - on - month, and UOB estimates an increase of 10% - 14%. Indonesia's biodiesel consumption from January - September 2025 was 10.57 billion liters, nearly 10% higher than the same period last year [5] Domestic Market - Palm Oil: Due to the expected large increase in Malaysia's palm oil production in October, the palm oil futures price closed down by over 1%. As of October 17, 2025, the commercial inventory was 57.57 million tons, a 5.13% increase from last week. The import profit inversion has narrowed, and there was a reported near - month purchase. The basis is stable to weak. It's expected to be volatile in the short term, and one can consider lightly testing long positions in the 05 contract on significant dips [5] - Soybean Oil: The soybean oil futures price closed slightly down. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2.1662 million tons with an operating rate of 59.59%. As of October 17, 2025, the commercial inventory was 122.4 million tons, a 3.25% decrease from last week. The basis is stable. With the decrease in soybean arrivals and crushing, the inventory may decline slightly, but overall supply is sufficient. It's expected to be volatile, and one can consider buying on significant dips in the 05 contract [6] - Rapeseed Oil: The rapeseed oil futures price closed slightly down. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume in coastal areas was 120,000 tons with an operating rate of 3.2%. As of October 17, 2025, the coastal inventory was 54.9 million tons, a decrease of 2.2 million tons. The European rapeseed oil FOB price increased, and the import profit inversion widened. Rapeseed imports decreased significantly. The basis is stable, and the de - stocking trend in coastal areas is expected to continue. The fundamental situation has little change, and the continuous de - stocking supports the price [7] Group 6: Trading Strategy - Unilateral Trading: Wait and see in the short term and consider buying on significant dips [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Wait and see [9] Group 7: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts showing the spot basis of different oils and fats in different regions, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads from 2016 - 2025 [12][15]