集运日报：SCFIS止跌大幅反弹多头情绪持续盘面宽幅震荡不建议加仓设置好止损-20251022

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - SCFIS stopped falling and rebounded significantly, boosting bullish sentiment, but the market fluctuated widely. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [1] - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Freight Index - On October 20, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1140.38 points, up 10.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 863.46 points, up 0.1% from the previous period [2] - On October 17, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 956.45 points, up 16.79% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 803.21 points, up 14.96% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1254.46 points, up 48.56% from the previous period [2] - On October 17, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1310.32 points, up 149.90 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European line was 1145 USD/TEU, up 7.2% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 1936 USD/FEU, up 31.9% from the previous period [2] - On October 17, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 973.11 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1267.91 points, down 1.5% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 725.47 points, down 6.7% from the previous period [2] PMI Data - The eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The service PMI preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding expectations. The composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations [2] - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing sentiment improved. The composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an accelerated overall expansion of enterprise production and operation activities [2] - The US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52 (the August final value was 53); the service PMI preliminary value was 53.9 (the August final value was 54.5); the composite PMI preliminary value was 53.6 (the August final value was 54.6) [2] Tariff and Trade - Sino - US tariffs continue to be extended, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has decreased slightly [2] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract remains weak, and the far - month contract is stronger, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preferring investors are recommended to try to build positions below 1500 for the EC2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - loss [2] - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [2] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profit when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [2] Market Conditions of Main Contracts - On October 20, the main contract 2512 closed at 1682.0, up 1.44%, with a trading volume of 24,300 lots and an open interest of 26,100 lots, an increase of 442 lots from the previous day [2] Contract Adjustments - The up - limit and down - limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 were adjusted to 18% [2] - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28% [2] - The daily opening position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [2]