2025年三季度煤炭债复盘：平均期限继续创新高，平煤神马重组利好存量债项

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "A" for the coal industry, indicating an expectation of outperforming the market by over 10% [1][5][93]. Core Insights - The coal market has benefited from a rebound in prices during the third quarter, leading to a recovery in industry profitability. However, the sustainability of this improvement remains uncertain due to rising average durations of coal debts and changing market perceptions of creditworthiness [5][93]. - The strategic restructuring between Pingmei Shenma Group and Henan Energy Group is expected to enhance asset scale and coal production capacity, which is favorable for existing debt instruments [5][94]. Summary by Sections 1. Coal Industry Fundamental Review - Supply Side: The supply growth has slowed down due to policies limiting overproduction, with a year-on-year decrease in coal output of 2.98% in Q3 2025 [12][16]. - Import Coal: The import of coal has rebounded in Q3 2025 due to domestic supply constraints and rising prices, which have stimulated demand for imported coal [18]. - Demand Side: Electricity demand has shown signs of recovery in Q3 2025, with increased thermal power demand despite some pressure from hydropower [19]. - Price and Profitability: Coal prices rebounded as expected in Q3 2025, with a projected support for prices in Q4 due to seasonal demand [29]. The industry’s gross profit margin decreased to 26.54%, with total profits down by 53.6% year-on-year [45]. - Investment and Leverage Levels: Fixed asset investment in the coal industry increased by 14.9% year-on-year, with a reasonable debt-to-asset ratio of 60.88% [56]. 2. Coal Debt Market Analysis - Primary Market: In Q3 2025, the net financing of coal debts remained positive, with new issuances totaling 106 billion yuan and repayments at 68.1 billion yuan [62][65]. - Secondary Market: The average duration of existing coal debts has increased significantly, reaching 2.81 years, indicating an improvement in the maturity structure of the industry [86]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring duration control in coal investments due to the rising average duration of coal debts and the uncertain sustainability of fundamental improvements [93]. The restructuring of Pingmei Shenma Group and Henan Energy Group is highlighted as a significant opportunity for existing debt instruments [94].