烧碱产业风险管理日报-20251022

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the maintenance of some facilities in Shandong provides slight support to the spot market, alleviating the spot pressure. However, the maintenance will gradually resume next week, and the performance of the spot market should be observed. Additionally, attention should be paid to the reduction amplitude of alumina production [3] 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2300 - 2600 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.92% and a historical percentile of 67.1% over three years [2] - For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises can short caustic soda futures (SH2601) at 2600 - 2650 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in profits, and sell call options (SH601C2680) at 60 - 70 yuan/ton with a 50% ratio to collect premiums and reduce costs [2] - For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low, enterprises can buy caustic soda futures (SH2601) at 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs, and sell put options (SH601P2320) at 70 - 80 yuan/ton with a 50% ratio to collect premiums and reduce costs [2] 3.2 Core Contradictions and Influencing Factors - Core contradictions: Near - term replenishment is below expectations, the spot market is weak, and there are medium - to - long - term production capacity expansion pressures and policy expectations [3] - Bullish factors: Some facilities in Shandong are under maintenance, leading to a decline in supply. The inventory of 32% caustic soda has decreased, providing slight support to the spot market [3] - Bearish factors: The alumina market is under pressure, local supply adjustments have begun, and the operating rate shows signs of a slight decline, which may affect the demand expectation for caustic soda [3] 3.3 Price and Spread Data - On October 22, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2475 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the previous day; the 09 contract was 2558 yuan/ton, down 0.12%; the 01 contract was 2380 yuan/ton, up 0.21% [3] - The 32% caustic soda ex - factory prices in various regions on October 22, 2025, remained mostly unchanged, except for a 1.5% decrease in the price of Beiyuan in Shaanxi [4][6] - The 50% caustic soda ex - factory prices in various regions on October 22, 2025, remained unchanged [6] - The flake caustic soda market prices in most regions on October 22, 2025, decreased, with declines ranging from 0.2% to 1.5% [7] - Some caustic soda brand/regional spreads on October 22, 2025, remained unchanged, while the northwest 99% - 50% caustic soda spread decreased by 51 yuan/ton, and the 50% caustic soda (Guangdong - Shandong) spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton [7] 3.4 Seasonal Data - The report presents the seasonal charts of caustic soda month - spreads (11 - 12), (12 - 01), (11 - 01), (01 - 03), (01 - 05), (05 - 09) and the seasonal charts of caustic soda 09 and 01 contract basis in Shandong [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16]