玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报-20251022

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - If there is no real production cut, the end - point of the 01 - contract for glass and soda ash is downward due to the existing structural contradictions. In reality, near - term glass data is poor with high intermediate inventory, and soda ash has a pattern of high production and high inventory with obvious oversupply. However, there is an expectation of cost increase for both glass and soda ash in the long run [2] - Without substantial cold - repair or production cut of glass, continue to focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread; it is recommended to exit and wait for the single - side short positions [5] Group 3: Price Forecasts - The monthly price range forecast for glass is 1000 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 33.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 85.5%. For soda ash, the monthly price range forecast is 1100 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.66% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 22.9% [1] Group 4: Hedging Strategies Glass - Inventory Management: When glass inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, sell FG2601 futures at 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601C1300 call options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in profits and reduce costs [1] - Procurement Management: When glass inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, buy FG2601 futures at 1050 - 1100 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601P1060 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in procurement costs [1] Soda Ash - Inventory Management: When soda ash inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, sell SA2601 futures at 1550 - 1600 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601C1400 call options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in profits and reduce costs [1] - Procurement Management: When soda ash inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, buy SA2601 futures at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601P1200 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in procurement costs [1] Group 5: Market Data Glass - On 2025/10/22, the glass 05 contract was 1241 (up 5 or 0.4% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1330 (up 8 or 0.61%), and the 01 contract was 1094 (up 7 or 0.64%). The 5 - 9 spread was - 89 (down 3), the 9 - 1 spread was 236 (up 1), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 147 (up 2). The 01 - contract basis in Shahe was 33 (down 9), and in Hubei was - 14 (down 7). The 05 - contract basis in Shahe was - 114 (down 7), and in Hubei was - 161 (down 5) [6] - The average spot price of glass in Shahe on 2025/10/22 was 1127 (down 2 from the previous day). Regional prices in North China were 1140 (down 20), in Northeast China were 1120 (down 30), and in Jiangsu were 1280 (down 20) [7] Soda Ash - On 2025/10/22, the soda ash 05 contract was 1308 (up 10 or 0.77% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1370 (up 9 or 0.66%), and the 01 contract was 1223 (up 13 or 1.07%). The 5 - 9 spread was - 62 (up 1, - 1.59% change), the 9 - 1 spread was 147 (down 4, - 2.65% change), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 85 (up 3, - 3.41% change). The Shahe heavy - base basis was - 73 (down 13), and the Qinghai heavy - base basis was - 273 (down 13) [7] - The heavy - alkali market price in Shahe on 2025/10/22 was 1173 (up 23 from the previous day). The price differences between heavy and light alkali in different regions were stable [8][9] Group 6: Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - There is an expectation of cost increase for glass and soda ash (fuel & raw materials), which affects the pricing of far - month contracts [4] - The expectation of industrial policies cannot be completely excluded and may be repeatedly traded [4] Bearish Factors - High inventories in the upstream and mid - stream of glass and soda ash, and doubts about downstream acceptance, resulting in a lackluster peak season [4] - There are supply pressures. Glass production lines have ignition expectations, and soda ash has future production - capacity expansion pressure [4] - The glass spot market is weak, with price cuts and poor production - sales ratios [5]