每日核心期货品种分析-20251022

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on October 22, 2025. Some commodities like asphalt and SC crude oil rose, while others such as沪金 and沪银 declined. Different commodities have different supply - demand fundamentals and market outlooks, with some expected to be in a strong - side or weak - side oscillation, and some suggest temporary exit for observation due to factors like upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations [5][6]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Futures Market Overview - As of the close on October 22, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Asphalt rose nearly 3%, and some commodities like rapeseed, SC crude oil, etc. rose over 2%.沪金 and沪银 fell nearly 4%, and some like palm oil and rapeseed meal fell over 1%. In the stock index futures, most contracts declined, while in the bond futures, most contracts rose or remained flat. In terms of fund flow,沪金 2512, lithium carbonate 2601, and沪铝 2512 had fund inflows, while中证 1000 2512,中证 500 2512, and沪深 300 2512 had outflows [5][6]. b) Market Analysis - Copper (沪铜): It opened low and moved weakly. Supply - side factors like copper mine accidents and low inventory limited the decline. Although the high price was resisted by the downstream, the export window was open and it was in the peak season, so the market was expected to be mainly in a range - bound oscillation [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: It opened low and moved strongly. It showed a pattern of strong supply and demand. With rising prices, production profit improved, and demand from the downstream battery industry was strong. However, demand was expected to decrease slightly next month, and it was expected to be in a strong - side oscillation in the short term [10]. - Crude Oil: OPEC + planned to increase production in November, which would increase supply pressure. The demand peak season ended, and inventory increased. Geopolitical risks decreased. The market was expected to be in a weak - side oscillation in the medium - to - long term, and it was recommended to exit the market temporarily and watch the Sino - US trade negotiation [11][13]. - Asphalt: Supply was at a high level, with开工率 slightly rising. Demand was restricted by factors like funds and weather. With the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the strengthening of the basis in Shandong, it was recommended to exit the market and observe [14]. - PP: Downstream开工率 was low. Supply increased with new capacity coming on - stream, and although it was in the peak season, demand was less than expected. It was expected to be in a weak - side oscillation [15][16]. - Plastic:开工率 was at a medium level. Supply increased with new capacity. Although the agricultural film was in the peak season, demand was less than expected. It was expected to be in a weak - side oscillation [17]. - PVC: Supply开工率 decreased, but was still high compared to the same period in previous years. Export expectations weakened, and inventory pressure was large. With the lack of actual policies and high inventory, it was recommended to exit the market and observe [18][19]. - Coking Coal: It opened low and moved strongly. Supply was tight due to production control and environmental policies, and demand was supported by the peak season. It was recommended to pay attention to the impact of major meetings [20][21]. - Urea: It opened flat and moved strongly. Supply decreased slightly, and the cost increased due to rising coal prices. Demand was weak as the autumn fertilizer season ended. The market was expected to stop falling and stabilize [22].