Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-22 10:00Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The alumina market fundamentals may shift to a situation where supply gradually decreases and demand remains stable. The electrolytic aluminum market may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and rising demand. The cast aluminum market may be in a stage of shrinking supply and stable demand, with relatively high industry inventory waiting to be reduced through consumption boost [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of SHFE aluminum was 21,045 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of alumina futures was 2,829 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan. The LME aluminum three - month quotation was 2,781 US dollars/ton, up 14.5 US dollars. The main contract of cast aluminum alloy closed at 20,515 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in SHFE aluminum increased by 356 lots to 15,149 lots, and the SHFE - LME ratio was 7.57, down 0.01 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals A00 aluminum was 20,980 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals was 2,820 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 21,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 585 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 65 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The basis of alumina was - 9 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national alumina production in the current month was 799.9 million tons, up 7.42 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 704.31 million tons, down 21.49 million tons. The alumina supply - demand balance was 46.85 million tons, up 18.12 million tons [2]. - The import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 155,414.4 tons, down 17,195.97 tons; the export volume was 68.54 tons, up 15.31 tons. The export volume of alumina was 25 million tons, up 7 million tons; the import volume was 6 million tons, down 3.44 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was - 10.54 million tons, up 1.45 million tons. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 58 million tons, up 31,034.96 million tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,523.2 million tons, up 0.8 million tons [2]. - The import volume of primary aluminum was 246,797.1 tons, and the export volume was 28,969.92 tons, up 3,365.58 tons. The electrolytic aluminum production start - up rate was 98.27%, up 0.16% [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of aluminum products was 590 million tons, up 35.18 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 52 million tons, down 1 million tons. The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 65.65 million tons, up 2.06 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 2.35 million tons, down 0.56 million tons [2]. - The national real estate climate index was 92.78, down 0.27. The automobile production was 322.65 million vehicles, up 47.42 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of SHFE aluminum was 8.60%, up 0.08%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 7.55%, unchanged. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the main SHFE aluminum contract was 9.92%, down 0.0001%; the call - put ratio was 1.21, up 0.0015 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Reuters survey: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, and the 2026 interest - rate path is highly uncertain. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce held talks and phone calls with relevant EU and Dutch officials on economic and trade issues [2]. - People's Daily: China is in a critical stage of transformation and high - quality development, facing external shocks and internal challenges, but its long - term positive trend remains unchanged. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce held a policy - interpretation round - table meeting for foreign - invested enterprises [2]. 3.8 Alumina Viewpoint - The main alumina contract fluctuated strongly, with increasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. On the raw material side, the bauxite port inventory continued to decline due to overseas seasonal changes, and the bauxite price remained firm. In terms of supply, the alumina futures and spot prices continued to fall, and smelter profits were damaged, so domestic alumina supply may shrink. In terms of demand, the in - production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased slightly, and the demand for alumina remained stable with a slight increase [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint - The main SHFE aluminum contract fluctuated strongly, with increasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. On the supply side, the weakening alumina spot price maintained good smelting profits, and the production start - up rate remained high. The in - production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased, and the supply may increase slightly. On the demand side, under the background of domestic macro - economic stimulus and the traditional peak season, the downstream start - up and orders increased, the proportion of molten aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots decreased significantly [2]. 3.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy Viewpoint - The main cast aluminum alloy contract fluctuated strongly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. On the supply side, the supply of scrap aluminum remained tight, providing cost support. Cast aluminum production was restricted, and the supply may shrink. On the demand side, during the traditional consumption peak season, the demand remained stable, but was suppressed by high raw material prices. The industry inventory was relatively high and awaited consumption boost to reduce inventory [2].