冠通期货研究报告：区间震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market is mainly in a range - bound oscillation. The US government shutdown is nearing an end, reducing market uncertainties. Fundamentally, there is high resistance to high copper prices in the domestic market, but the opening of the domestic copper export window eases the inventory accumulation pressure. It is the peak consumption season in October, and the fundamentals provide support. Copper mine accidents limit price declines. Although the previous trading session has broken through the long - term oscillation range and the market tends to be strong, the upward momentum is insufficient as demand support weakens [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened lower and moved lower, showing a weak intraday oscillation. The supply - side disturbances in copper mines limit the decline of copper prices. The positive support from the previous copper mine accident in Indonesia to the market has not disappeared. The port inventory of copper concentrates has decreased this week, and the current inventory is significantly lower than that of last year. Smelter overhauls are still ongoing, resulting in low output levels. Currently, long - term contracts are in the preliminary discussion stage, and copper mine traders hold relatively few supplies. Although it is the peak season in October, the high copper prices driven by macro - stimulation are difficult to be accepted by downstream users, leading to a weak market trading atmosphere. After the recent price decline, the demand may improve month - on - month. The stable development of the domestic power grid and new energy sectors provides rigid support for demand, and the global industrial demand outlook is optimistic during the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened lower and moved lower, showing a weak intraday oscillation [1][4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China is 25 yuan/ton, and in South China is 65 yuan/ton. On October 21, 2025, the LME official price was 10,635 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 23 US dollars/ton [4]. 3.3. Supply Side - As of the latest data on October 15, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 40.8 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.08 US cents/pound [8]. 3.4. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory is 36,600 tons, a decrease of 7,978 tons from the previous period. As of October 20, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 108,700 tons, an increase of 8,700 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory is 136,900 tons, a decrease of 25 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory is 345,900 short tons, a decrease of 692 short tons from the previous period [11].