原油日报：原油震荡上行-20251022

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The supply - demand situation of crude oil is weak. In the medium - to - long - term, it is mainly expected to fluctuate weakly. However, the crude oil price has dropped significantly since October, and the upcoming new round of economic and trade consultations between China and the US may increase price volatility. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and focus on the progress of China - US trade negotiations [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 5, OPEC+ eight countries decided to further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, which will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The next meeting will be held on November 2 [1]. - The peak season of crude oil demand is over. EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventories and the decrease in refined oil inventories exceed expectations, and the overall oil product inventory has increased. US refineries are in the autumn maintenance season, and the refinery operating rate has decreased by 6.7 percentage points [1]. - After the discount of Russian crude oil widened, India continued to import Russian crude oil. The EU passed a new round of sanctions against Russia, and plans to raise the import tariff on Russian oil. Russia extended the export ban on diesel and gasoline to the end of the year, but its crude oil export volume remains high [1]. - EIA's latest monthly report predicts that the global oil inventory will increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, and IEA's monthly report shows that the global oil surplus is intensifying [1]. - The first - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza has been reached, geopolitical risks have cooled down. The EU sanctions, the end of the consumption peak season, weak US non - farm payroll data, and China - US trade uncertainties have worried the market about crude oil demand [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - The main crude oil futures contract 2512 rose 2.52% to 447.2 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 434.0 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 452.0 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 2,276 to 46,980 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, raises the US crude oil production in 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day, and adjusts the average Brent crude oil price in 2025 from $67.80/barrel to $68.64/barrel. It also predicts that the Brent crude oil price will fall to $59/barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and remain at $51.43/barrel in 2026 [3]. - OPEC raises the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 10,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day and keeps the 2026 growth rate at 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA lowers the 2025 global oil demand growth rate by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day, and raises the 2025 and 2026 global oil supply growth rates by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day and 2.4 million barrels per day respectively, intensifying the oil supply surplus [3]. Inventory and Production Data - As of the week ending October 10, US crude oil inventories increased by 3.524 million barrels (expected 288,000 barrels), gasoline inventories decreased by 267,000 barrels (expected 75,000 barrels), refined oil inventories decreased by 4.529 million barrels (expected 294,000 barrels), and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 703,000 barrels [4]. - OPEC's August crude oil production was adjusted down by 32,000 barrels per day to 27.916 million barrels per day, and its September 2025 production increased by 524,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.44 million barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. US crude oil production increased by 7,000 barrels per day to 13.636 million barrels per day in the week of October 10, reaching a new record high [4]. Demand Data - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.669 million barrels per day, 0.85% higher than the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 5.20% to 8.455 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.713 million barrels per day, 3.19% lower than the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand decreased by 2.60% to 4.233 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.984 million barrels per day, 0.19% higher than the same period last year. The decline in gasoline and diesel demand led to an 11.48% month - on - month decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [5].