Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-22 09:55Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term L2601 is expected to strengthen with oil prices, with a daily operating range projected to be around 6870 - 7030. The PE production and capacity utilization are expected to rise slightly. The overall inventory pressure is not significant. The cost of oil - made LLDPE decreases with international oil prices, and the oil - made profit recovers; the coal - made cost drops slightly, and the loss deepens. The downstream shed film is in the peak season, while the new orders for the packaging film are limited [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing prices of polyethylene futures contracts increased, with the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contract closing prices at 6936 yuan/ton, 6978 yuan/ton, and 7009 yuan/ton respectively, up 53 yuan/ton, 61 yuan/ton, and 57 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 234079 lots, down 52219 lots, and the open interest was 549864 lots, down 12101 lots. The 1 - 5 spread was - 42, down 8. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 77933 lots, up 2926 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 6983.48 yuan/ton, down 8.26 yuan/ton, and in East China was 7131.43 yuan/ton, down 13.57 yuan/ton. The basis was 100.48, down 12.26 [2]. Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 58.33 US dollars/barrel, down 0.99 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 537 US dollars/ton, down 8.5 US dollars. The mid - price of ethylene CFR in Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia remained unchanged at 771 US dollars/ton and 781 US dollars/ton respectively [2]. Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate was 81.76%, down 2.19%. From October 10th to 16th, the PE output decreased by 2.05% to 65.06 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.19% to 81.76% [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of polyethylene packaging film, pipes, and agricultural film were 52.19% (down 0.7%), 32% (up 0.33%), and 42.89% (up 7.28%) respectively. From October 10th to 16th, the average operating rate of Chinese polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.55%, and the overall operating rate of agricultural film increased by 7.3% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of polyethylene were 8.29% (up 0.78%) and 7.68% (up 0.34%) respectively. The implied volatilities of at - the - money put and call options were 11.27%, down 0.91% [2]. Industry News - As of October 22nd, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene manufacturers was 51.46 tons, down 2.81% from the previous period; as of October 17th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 54.54 tons, down 0.05% from the previous period. From October 11th to 17th, the cost of oil - made LLDPE decreased by 3.34% to 7166 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 140.29 yuan/ton to - 80.71 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - made LLDPE decreased by 0.86% to 6507 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 76.15 yuan/ton to 494.14 yuan/ton [2]. Outlook - Tianjin Petrochemical, Guoneng Ningxia Coal Industry, and Daqing Petrochemical are scheduled for maintenance this week, and the previously short - stopped units will gradually restart. The PE output and capacity utilization are expected to rise slightly. In October, there are few new shutdown units, and new production capacity is about to come on stream, resulting in high supply pressure. The downstream shed film is in the peak season, and the orders and operating rate are rising to the annual high; the new orders for the packaging film are limited, and the units are expected to operate stably. Due to the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the possible deterioration of the Venezuelan situation, international oil prices have risen significantly. In the short term, L2601 is expected to strengthen with oil prices, with a daily operating range of around 6870 - 7030 [2].