Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-22 09:55Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the caustic soda industry daily report on October 22, 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2380 yuan/ton, with a 5-yuan increase; the contract closing price of caustic soda for January was 2380 yuan/ton, and for May was 2475 yuan/ton with a 2-yuan increase [2] - The position of the main caustic soda contract was 120124 lots, a decrease of 1434 lots; the trading volume was 252513 lots, an increase of 28850 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 futures traders for caustic soda was -787 lots, a decrease of 1801 lots [2] Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 820 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu was 950 yuan/ton, both unchanged [2] - The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2562.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of caustic soda was 188 yuan/ton, a 5-yuan increase [2] Upstream - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and Northwest China was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of steam coal was 647 yuan/ton, a 3-yuan increase [2] Industry - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 150 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu was 100 yuan/ton, both unchanged [2] Downstream - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2830 yuan/ton, a 5-yuan decrease [2] Group 3: Industry News - From October 10th to 16th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.4%, a 2.6% decrease from the previous week [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of alumina decreased by 0.10% to 86.22%, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber decreased by 1.02% to 88.61%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing increased by 0.63% to 67.26% [2] - As of October 16th, the inventory of liquid caustic soda in sample enterprises was 403,300 tons (wet tons), a 4.25% decrease from the previous week and a 13.83% increase year-on-year [2] - From October 10th to 16th, the average weekly profit of the Shandong chlor-alkali industry was 394 yuan/ton [2] Group 4: Core Views - The SH2601 contract showed a "cross" oscillation and closed at 2380 yuan/ton. Last week, the impact of maintenance devices increased, and the operating rates of caustic soda in North, East, and Northwest China decreased to varying degrees, with the national average operating rate decreasing [2] - The high operating state of downstream alumina continued, and the operating rates of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing changed slightly. After the National Day, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories resumed the destocking trend, but the inventory pressure was still high [2] - Affected by the subsidy from liquid chlorine and the relatively strong market price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong, the profit of the Shandong chlor-alkali industry recovered last week. This week, there are both shutdown and restart devices for caustic soda, and the supply is expected to increase [2] - The number of loss-making alumina enterprises increased, but there are currently no large-scale production reduction plans, and the short-term caustic soda demand is not expected to shrink significantly. In the fourth quarter, there are both expectations of new alumina capacity being put into production and cost-driven production reduction of existing devices [2] - If the alumina production reduction is implemented in the future, the impact will be greater than the replenishment demand of new devices. The caustic soda warehouse receipts have declined from a high level, and the pressure has eased. In the short term, SH2601 is expected to oscillate, with a daily range of around 2300 - 2420 [2]