瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20251022

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The probability of a continued decrease in urea production is high, with the short - term forecast for the UR2601 contract to fluctuate between 1590 - 1650 yuan/ton. Agricultural urea sales have increased slightly, while compound fertilizer companies are reducing inventory and maintaining low开工率. Domestic urea enterprise inventory has only increased slightly [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1621 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 70 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the main contract position is 312,046 hands, down 121 hands; the net position of the top 20 is - 41,450, down 526; the exchange warehouse receipt is 5,556 sheets, down 501 sheets [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Urea prices in Hebei are 1580 yuan/ton (unchanged), Henan 1540 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Jiangsu 1550 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Shandong 1540 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), and Anhui 1560 yuan/ton (unchanged). The main contract basis is - 69 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan. FOB Baltic is 370 dollars/ton (unchanged), and FOB China Main Port is 385 dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 44.6 million tons, up 3.1 million tons; enterprise inventory is 161.54 million tons, up 17.15 million tons. The urea enterprise开工率 is 80.64%, down 5.02%; daily production is 188,600 tons, down 11,800 tons. Urea exports are 137 million tons, up 57 million tons; monthly production is 5,738,670 tons, down 190,010 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer开工率 is 24.18%, down 1.32%; the melamine开工率 is 55.18%, down 10.29%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 167 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine (external urea procurement) is 228 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. Monthly compound fertilizer production is 466.18 million tons, down 65.15 million tons; weekly melamine production is 27,400 tons, down 2,600 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of October 22, enterprise inventory increased by 0.92% week - on - week; as of October 16, port inventory increased by 7.47% week - on - week. As of October 16, production decreased by 5.01% week - on - week, and the utilization rate of production capacity decreased by 4.25% week - on - week [2]