Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - On October 22, 2025, the plastic industry's maintenance devices changed little, with the plastic operating rate at around 86%, a neutral level. The downstream PE operating rate rose 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%, with the agricultural film in the peak season. However, overall, the downstream PE operating rate remained at a low level compared to the same period in recent years. The post - National Day petrochemical inventory accumulation was similar to previous years, and the current petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level. The new capacity of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into production, and the plastic operating rate decreased slightly. Although the demand for agricultural film was expected to increase, the peak - season effect was not as expected, and downstream purchasing willingness was insufficient. Considering factors such as the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the mutual collection of special port fees for ships, and the lack of anti - involution policies in the plastic industry, the plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 22, the plastic operating rate was around 86%, a neutral level. The downstream PE operating rate rose 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%. The agricultural film entered the peak season, but its orders and raw material inventory were still lower than in previous years. Packaging film orders decreased slightly. The post - National Day petrochemical inventory accumulation was similar to previous years, and the current inventory was at a neutral level. With new capacity put into production, the plastic operating rate decreased slightly. Although the demand for agricultural film was expected to increase, the peak - season effect was not as expected, and downstream purchasing willingness was insufficient. Due to factors like Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the lack of anti - involution policies, the plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2601 contract rose with reduced positions, closing at 6936 yuan/ton, up 0.98%. The trading range was from 6873 to 6956 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average. The position volume decreased by 12,101 lots to 549,864 lots [2]. - Spot: The PE spot market had mixed price changes, with fluctuations between - 100 and + 20 yuan/ton. LLDPE was priced at 6810 - 7470 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8930 - 9930 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7230 - 8090 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On October 22, the maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate was around 86%, a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week of October 17, the downstream PE operating rate rose 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%. The agricultural film entered the peak season, but its orders and raw material inventory were still lower than in previous years. Packaging film orders decreased slightly, and the overall downstream PE operating rate was at a low level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - Inventory: During the National Day holiday, petrochemical inventory increased by 270,000 tons. On Wednesday, it decreased by 10,000 tons to 780,000 tons, 20,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The current petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $62/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $770/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price also remained flat at $780/ton [4].
塑料日报：震荡上行-20251022
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-10-22 09:54