沥青日报：震荡上行-20251022

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is showing an upward trend in a volatile manner. The supply is at a relatively high level, but there are signs of reduction. The demand is restricted by factors such as funds, weather, and slow infrastructure investment growth. Considering the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the strong basis in Shandong, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the asphalt futures market [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt开工率 increased by 1.3 percentage points to 35.8% week - on - week, 8.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a neutral - low level in recent years. In October, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.682 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons (0.1%) month - on - month and an increase of 0.35 million tons (15.0%) year - on - year. Some refineries like Wudi Xinyue have maintenance plans, which will reduce asphalt production, but it remains at a high level [1]. - Demand: After the National Day holiday, the national asphalt shipment increased by 14.48% week - on - week to 253,300 tons, at a neutral - low level. The downstream construction rate of asphalt is mostly stable, with the road asphalt construction rate remaining flat at 29.0% week - on - week, at the lowest level in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall in some areas. Projects in many northern regions are rushing to work, but there are temperature drops in some areas, increased rainfall in the south, and capital constraints, which affect asphalt demand [1]. - Recommendation: Due to the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the strong basis in Shandong, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the asphalt futures market [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract rose 2.95% to 3,249 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,157 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3,249 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 4,829 to 186,849 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,330 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 11 contract dropped to 91 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: The asphalt开工率 in Shandong and East China increased by 1.3 percentage points to 35.8% week - on - week, 8.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a neutral - low level in recent years [4]. - Investment Data: From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased by 7.1% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was - 2.7%, a slight improvement from - 3.3% from January to August. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to September 2025 was 1.1%, down from 2.0% from January to August [4]. - Downstream Construction: As of the week of October 17, the downstream construction rate of asphalt was mostly stable, with the road asphalt construction rate remaining flat at 29.0% week - on - week, at the lowest level in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall in some areas [1][4]. - Social Financing: From January to September 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, 0.1 percentage point lower than that from January to August. In September, the new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, but it was 233.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year due to the high base [4]. Inventory - As of the week of October 17, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio increased by 0.8 percentage points to 16.6% compared with the week of October 10, still at the lowest level in recent years [5].