Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The PP market is expected to show a weak and volatile trend. Although the downstream is in the peak season, the peak - season demand is lower than expected, and there are concerns about economic growth and the lack of actual anti - involution policies in the PP industry [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - PP downstream开工率 increased by 0.09 percentage points to 51.85% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving开工率 remained flat at 44.26% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year. On October 22, some overhauled devices such as Zhejiang Petrochemical 4PP restarted, and the PP enterprise开工率 rose to around 80.5%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of standard wire drawing increased to around 27%. The petrochemical inventory accumulation during the National Day this year was similar to previous years, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price may fluctuate more due to the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations. There are new capacity additions, and recent overhauled devices have increased. The downstream is in the peak season, but the peak - season demand is lower than expected, and there are concerns about economic growth and the lack of anti - involution policies [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated upwards, with a low of 6575 yuan/ton, a high of 6642 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6619 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, up 0.72%. The position decreased by 15,845 lots to 633,255 lots [2] - Spot: Most PP spot prices in various regions were stable, with wire drawing quoted at 6390 - 6630 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On October 22, some overhauled devices such as Zhejiang Petrochemical 4PP restarted, and the PP enterprise开工率 rose to around 80.5%, at a moderately low level [4] - Demand: As of the week of October 17, the PP downstream开工率 increased by 0.09 percentage points to 51.85% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving开工率 remained flat at 44.26% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory increased by 270,000 tons during the National Day holiday, decreased by 10,000 tons to 780,000 tons on Wednesday, 20,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The petrochemical inventory accumulation during the National Day this year was similar to previous years, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $62/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $775/ton week - on - week [5]
PP日报：震荡上行-20251022
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-10-22 09:54