止跌企稳

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is showing signs of stabilizing after a decline. The production of urea has slightly decreased, and the cost side is affected by the coal price trend. Currently, the futures market lacks positive drivers [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Futures Market: The main urea contract 2601 opened at 1611 yuan/ton, closed at 1621 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.62%. The trading volume decreased by 121 lots to 312,046 lots. On October 22, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 5,556, a decrease of 501 compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Spot Market: The upstream factories' sales situation is fair, maintaining a weak - stable operation. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1490 - 1540 yuan/ton [1][4]. 3.2 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On October 22, 2025, the national daily urea production was 196,200 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons compared to the previous day, with an operating rate of 82.9% [9]. - Inventory: As of October 24, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.6302 million tons, an increase of 14,800 tons from the previous week, a 0.92% increase. The pre - sale order days were 6.71 days, a decrease of 0.29 days from the previous period, a 4.14% decrease [10]. - Basis: Taking the Henan region as the benchmark, the basis of the January contract was - 81 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [6].