Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-22 09:53Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restrictions increase the cost of nickel resource supply, the growth of Indonesian ferronickel production slows down, and domestic production gradually declines. Recently, the price of ferronickel has rebounded from a low level, strengthening the support of raw material costs. On the supply side, although the production profit of steel mills has shrunk, with the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season and the gradual increase in infrastructure and real - estate demand, the production schedule of stainless - steel mills still increases. On the demand side, infrastructure construction in October is expected to speed up, combined with the favorable fiscal investment policies in China, and anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. Market procurement demand is resilient, and domestic inventories continue to decline. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being or hold previous long positions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,710 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 45; the price difference between the October - November contracts is 495 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 110. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are - 10,699 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 630; the position volume of the main contract is 179,530 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 8,802. The warehouse receipt quantity is 74,376 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 121 [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,550 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of 304 scrap stainless steel in Wuxi is 9,250 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the SS main contract is 505 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 70 [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 21,700 metal tons, with a decrease of 300 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, with an increase of 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, with an increase of 211,200 tons. The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 122,100 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 400 yuan/ton; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 935 yuan/nickel point, with a decrease of 5 yuan/nickel point. The monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, with a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, with an increase of 24,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 583,600 tons, with an increase of 200 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, with a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, with an increase of 55.9799 million square meters. The monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 267,000 units; the monthly production of excavators is 6,900 units, with an increase of 2,900 units; the monthly production of small tractors is 9,000 units, with a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - The US President Trump said he would visit China early next year, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson responded that there was no information to provide for the time being. The Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao had video talks with EU officials on issues such as export control and the EU's anti - subsidy case against Chinese electric vehicles, and also talked with the Dutch economic minister about issues such as Nexperia. A Reuters survey shows that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, and the 2026 interest - rate path is highly uncertain [2].