铜专题报告：新旧动能转换下，铜长期上涨趋势不变

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term upward trend of copper prices remains unchanged, with short - term copper prices needing to consolidate after hitting the $11,000/ton resistance level. The overall strategy is to go long on dips [2][4][67]. - The copper market is facing a situation of tight supply and increasing demand. Supply is affected by factors such as mine - end disturbances and insufficient capital expenditure, while demand is driven by emerging sectors like AI, new energy, and storage [2][53][67]. - The copper - gold ratio is at a historical extreme level. Historically, its rebound is usually accompanied by economic recovery and rising copper prices, which will support copper prices without a systemic crisis [2][65]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Mine - end Disturbances Increase, and Supply Remains Tight - 2025 Copper Mine Supply Increment Drops Sharply: In 2025, the expected increment of copper mine supply has dropped to 50,000 tons, far lower than the 640,000 - ton increment in 2024, due to factors like increased mine - end accidents, aging of traditional mines, insufficient capital expenditure of mining enterprises, and increased maintenance costs. Many major mining companies have lowered their production targets [5][6]. - Limited Expected Increment of Copper Mines in 2026: The expected increment of copper mines in 2026 is about 560,000 tons, but the actual increment may be less than 200,000 tons due to uncertainties such as the Peruvian general election, strike risks, the resumption of production of Cobre Panama, and the resumption progress of Kamoa [10][11]. - Long - term Insufficient Capital Expenditure in Copper Mines: Copper prices usually lead capital expenditure by 1 - 2 years. The capital expenditure of copper mining enterprises has not fully recovered to previous high levels. The capital expenditure growth rate leads the copper mine supply growth rate by 5 - 8 years. After a short - term increase in copper mine supply from 2027 - 2028, there will be a long - term low - growth period [13][18]. Part 2: The Growth Rate of Refined Copper Production Slows Down, and Global Supply Mismatches - Faster Transmission from Mine - end to Smelting End: In 2026, with insufficient copper mine increments, processing fees may remain low, and the transmission from the mine - end to the smelting end will be faster. Many smelters face risks of production reduction or suspension [21]. - Continuous Export of South American Copper to the United States: Affected by the 232 tariff policy, South American copper still gives priority to exporting to the United States, resulting in tight supply in non - US regions. There are opportunities for inter - period positive spreads, and the BACK structure is beneficial to long positions and can support prices [24][32]. Part 3: Emerging Consumption Shows Bright Spots - Rapid Development of AI: AI development depends on data center computing power. The copper consumption of data centers is concentrated in power distribution equipment, cables, and cooling systems. The global data center capacity is growing rapidly, which will drive copper consumption, and related grid upgrades and energy storage equipment will also increase copper demand [34][35][36]. - Lithium - ion Copper Foil Consumption Led by Energy Storage Batteries: The global copper foil capacity is growing, with lithium - ion copper foil having a relatively high growth rate. Energy storage batteries are growing rapidly, and relevant national plans also indicate a large increment space [41]. - Population Growth and Increased Military Expenditure: Although China and the United States may face a decline in copper consumption, global population growth and increased military expenditure will drive up copper demand [49][50]. Part 4: Enhanced Financial Attributes - The copper - gold ratio is an important indicator for measuring economic cycle changes. Currently, the copper - gold ratio has reached a historical low, mainly due to gold price increases. Historically, the rebound of the copper - gold ratio is usually accompanied by economic recovery and rising copper prices, which will support copper prices [55][59][65]. Part 5: Strategy Suggestions - Unilateral Trading: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy as the long - term upward trend of copper prices remains unchanged [4][67]. - Arbitrage: Consider inter - market and inter - period positive spreads [4][67]. - Options: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [4].