国债期货日报-20251022

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to capital market sentiment. It indicates a cautious sentiment in the current capital market, waiting for policy statements from the Fourth Plenary Session on the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the results of Sino-US trade negotiations. If the news significantly boosts A-share sentiment, there may be opportunities to go long on bond futures at low levels. The operation should be based on a bullish mindset without chasing high prices [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review - On Wednesday, bond futures fluctuated. Except for a slight decline in TS, other varieties closed higher. Spot bond yields fluctuated. The capital market was loose, with DR001 around 1.32%. The open market conducted 13.82 billion yuan in reverse repurchases, with a net injection of 9.47 billion yuan [1]. 3.2. Intraday News - The Ministry of Commerce held a roundtable meeting with foreign-funded enterprises, stating that it will legally approve compliant trade and maintain the stability of the global industrial chain and supply chain. - Minister Li Lecheng of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology proposed to build a new narrative logic and discourse system for new industrialization [2]. 3.3. Market Judgment - Today, the previously popular sectors in the A-share market showed signs of restarting, but the trading volume was insufficient, and the breakthrough was unsuccessful. The bond market was slightly affected by the stock market during the day. Currently, the long-term bond price is near the upper edge of the range, waiting for guidance from the news. Tomorrow, pay attention to the news from the Fourth Plenary Session. If the news significantly boosts A-share sentiment, there may be opportunities to go long on bond futures at low levels. The operation should be based on a bullish mindset without chasing high prices [3]. 3.4. Daily Data of Treasury Bond Futures | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 22 | 2025 - 10 - 21 | Today's Change | Contract Position (Lots) on 2025 - 10 - 22 | Contract Position (Lots) on 2025 - 10 - 21 | Today's Change in Position | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.352 | 102.362 | -0.01 | 76,223 | 77,402 | -1,179 | | TF2512 | 105.715 | 105.695 | 0.02 | 156,292 | 156,544 | -252 | | T2512 | 108.16 | 108.12 | 0.04 | 269,637 | 265,904 | 3,733 | | TL2512 | 115.6 | 115.49 | 0.11 | 178,780 | 183,244 | -4,464 | | TS Basis (CTD) | -0.0316 | -0.0144 | -0.0172 | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 24,145 | 25,832 | -1,687 | | TF Basis (CTD) | -0.0118 | -0.0262 | 0.0144 | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 40,005 | 45,116 | -5,111 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.1457 | 0.0253 | 0.1204 | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 66,248 | 76,221 | -9,973 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.3552 | 0.2497 | 0.1055 | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 113,354 | 124,727 | -11,373 | [4]