Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-22 10:34Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View of the Report - The surplus pattern of the nickel market is difficult to change, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate and adjust. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range operations, with attention focused on the range of 120,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,380 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton; the spread between the October - November contracts of Shanghai nickel is 2,470 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 260 yuan/ton [3] - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,210 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 20 US dollars/ton; the position volume of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,311 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 70,923 lots [3] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 36,419 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,123 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 250,878 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 402 tons [3] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 34,419 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,300 tons; the total LME nickel cancelled warrants is 6,276 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 156 tons [3] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 26,953 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 73 tons [3] Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 122,100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 400 yuan/ton; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals is 122,200 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 300 yuan/ton [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,800 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the basis of the NI main contract is 720 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 600 yuan/ton [3] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 206.29 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.41 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 6.1145 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 232,200 tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 15.2884 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 279,100 tons [3] - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 56.72 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.61 US dollars/ton; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with no week - on - week change [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 21,700 metal tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 300 metal tons [3] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 211,200 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 24,800 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 583,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 200 tons [3] Industry News - US President Trump said he would visit China early next year, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson responded that there was no information to provide for the time being [3] - Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao had video talks with EU officials on export control and the EU's anti - subsidy case against Chinese electric vehicles, and also talked with Dutch officials about issues related to Nexperia [3] - A Reuters survey shows that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, and the interest rate path in 2026 is highly uncertain [3] Key Points of View - On the supply side, the PNBP policy of the Indonesian government restricts the supply, raising the cost of nickel resources; the supply of nickel ore from the Philippines is recovering, and the port inventory of nickel ore in China is increasing rapidly [3] - On the smelting side, new electrolytic nickel projects are being put into production slowly, and some smelters are reducing production due to losses at low nickel prices, so the output of refined nickel is expected to remain stable at a high level [3] - On the demand side, it is the traditional consumption peak season for stainless steel plants, and steel mills are increasing production; the production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited [3] - Nickel inventories in China continue to grow, the market mainly purchases on demand, and the spot premium is slightly adjusted upwards; overseas LME inventories are also increasing [3]