瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20251022

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The weekly output of hot - rolled coils remains high with a capacity utilization rate of 82.21%. Terminal demand is picking up, apparent demand is increasing, but inventory continues to rise. Overall, the rebound of furnace materials strengthens cost support, and the reduction of short - positions supports the rebound of hot - rolled coils. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are moving upwards. The operation strategy is to be bullish with oscillations, and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,247 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan; the trading volume is 1,501,176 lots, down 8,822 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is - 30,357 lots, up 13,307 lots. The HC1 - 5 contract spread is - 12 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 142,761 tons, down 896 tons. The HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 179 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,320 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Guangzhou is 3,250 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Wuhan is 3,350 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Tianjin is 3,200 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract is 73 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan. The price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 60 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 781 yuan/wet ton, up 1 yuan. The price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,540 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,930 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 142.817 million tons, up 2.5303 million tons. The inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 374,900 tons, down 50,600 tons. The inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.3927 million tons, down 113,000 tons. The inventory of Hebei billets is 1.2996 million tons, up 23,600 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 84.25%, unchanged. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.31%, down 0.22%. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 3.2184 million tons, down 14,500 tons. The capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 82.21%, down 0.37%. The factory inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 778,500 tons, down 57,500 tons. The social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 3.4134 million tons, up 120,400 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons. The monthly net export volume of steel is 9.92 million tons, up 910,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles is 3.2758 million vehicles, up 460,400 vehicles. The monthly sales volume of automobiles is 3.2264 million vehicles, up 369,800 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units. The monthly output of household refrigerators is 10.1276 million units, up 674,400 units. The monthly output of household washing machines is 11.7849 million units, up 1.653 million units [2] 3.6 Industry News - From January to September 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3.71535 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In the tertiary industry, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply) increased by 1.1% year - on - year. The European Commission announced an anti - dumping final affirmative ruling on steel crawler tracks originating from China, with an anti - dumping duty of 62.5% on steel crawler tracks under EU CN codes 8426, 8429 or 8430 and conveyor belts under code 8428 [2] 3.7 Key Focus - The weekly output, in - plant inventory and social inventory of hot - rolled coils on Thursday [2]