Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-22 10:30Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the overall trend of rapeseed meal remains bearish. The rapeseed oil market will continue to maintain a de - stocking mode, and its price is supported, but the market is also intertwined with long and short factors. Attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade policies [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9834 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2307 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; that of ICE rapeseed is 629.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 0.8 Canadian dollars; and that of rapeseed is 5434 yuan/ton, up 103 yuan [2] - Spreads and positions: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is 386 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 8 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil are 8702 lots, down 1206 lots; those of rapeseed meal are - 107102 lots, down 12852 lots [2] - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 7540, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 4702, down 3000 [2] Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10020 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2390 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10113.75 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 7495.07 yuan/ton, up 12.69 yuan [2] - Basis and price differences: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 186 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract is 83 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1520 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 920 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 510 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons [2] - Imports and profits: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 11.53 tons, down 13.13 tons. The import rapeseed crushing profit is 766 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan [2] Industry Situation - Inventory and开机率: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 3 tons, down 2 tons. The weekly opening rate of imported rapeseed is 3.2%, down 0.53%. The inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas is 5.2 tons, down 0.8 tons; that of rapeseed meal is 0.78 tons, down 0.37 tons [2] - Import volume: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 14 tons, up 1 ton; that of rapeseed meal is 18.31 tons, down 8.72 tons [2] Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2927.2 tons, up 99.9 tons; that of edible vegetable oil is 450.6 tons, up 30 tons [2] - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4495.7 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2] Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures slightly rose on October 21, with the most actively traded January contract up 0.10 Canadian dollars to 630.10 Canadian dollars per ton. The US Midwest soybean harvest is progressing actively, and the expected high - yield of US soybeans restricts its price. The US government shutdown leads to a lack of data and market caution [2] Rapeseed Meal View Summary - The Sino - Canadian trade negotiation has no substantial progress, and the import of Canadian rapeseed in the fourth quarter is restricted. However, the high - yield of Canadian rapeseed is basically realized, and the demand for rapeseed meal is weak due to the decline of aquaculture demand and the abundant supply of soybeans [2] Rapeseed Oil View Summary - The preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping policy for Canadian rapeseed is out, and the supply of imported rapeseed will be structurally tightened in the fourth quarter. Rapeseed oil will continue to be in a de - stocking mode, but the abundant supply of soybean oil restricts its demand [2]