银河期货航运日报-20251022

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the high spot quotes and optimistic expectations for future Sino-US negotiations, the EC futures market maintains high-level volatility. The EC2512 contract closed at 1788.3 points on October 22, up 1.07% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS European Line index exceeded market expectations, leading to an upward correction of the EC2510 contract's discount [6]. - The spread between mainstream shipping companies in spot freight rates has widened again. Considering the good long - term cargo receiving situation of shipping companies, the fundamentals are expected to gradually improve. The spot freight rate is expected to continue to rise in November. The demand side shows a seasonal decline in cargo volume, which is expected to improve in November - December. The supply side has changes in shipping capacity arrangements, and the Sino - US ship sanctions and the Middle East geopolitical situation bring risks and uncertainties [7]. - The recommended trading strategies are to continue holding long positions in EC2512 and to take profits on the 2 - 4 positive spread arbitrage at high levels [8][9]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Market Analysis - Futures Market: On October 22, different EC futures contracts showed various price changes. For example, EC2512 rose 1.07% to 1788.3 points, and EC2606 fell 0.57% to 1353.3 points. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed to different degrees [5]. - Spot Market: The SCFI European Line reported 1145 USD/TEU on October 17, up 7.2% month - on - month. The latest SCFIS European Line reported 1140.38 points, up 10.5% month - on - month. Different shipping routes' freight rates showed various changes, with some rising significantly and some falling slightly [5][6]. - Fundamentals: The spread between shipping companies in spot freight rates widened. Some shipping companies had lower SPOT prices due to cargo - booking pressure. In November, shipping companies' price increases are expected to continue. The demand side's cargo volume is in a seasonal decline but is expected to improve later. The supply side has shipping capacity adjustments, and the Sino - US ship sanctions and the Middle East geopolitical situation bring risks [7]. Strategy Recommendation - Single - side Trading: Continue to hold long positions in EC2512, and pay attention to the implementation of the first - stage cease - fire in the Israel - Palestine conflict, the second - stage negotiation, and the shipping companies' resumption expectations [8]. - Arbitrage: Take profits on the 2 - 4 positive spread arbitrage at high levels [9]. Industry News - Trump said he would visit China early next year, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded [10]. - On October 20, 2025, Trump made a series of statements on Sino - US trade during a meeting with the Australian Prime Minister, including tariff threats and trade agreements [10]. - On October 22, US Vice - President Vance expressed optimism about the Gaza cease - fire agreement and emphasized the need for continuous monitoring. US Secretary of State Rubio plans to visit Israel to promote the implementation of the agreement [11]. - On October 21, US Vice - President Vance arrived in Israel to assist in promoting the second stage of the Gaza cease - fire plan [11].