贵金属价格大幅波动

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 22, 2025, the A-share market showed a shrinking and volatile trend, the bond market maintained a relatively strong trend, and the commodity market witnessed significant fluctuations in precious metal prices [2][3][7][8]. - It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation strategy. With the upcoming conclusion of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, the focus of the "15th Five-Year Plan" policies may become the focus of the new market mainline. The technology sector and new sub - fields such as "deep - earth economy" may receive new catalysts, and the large - consumption sector is worthy of further attention [4][6]. - In the short term, for stocks, it is advisable to maintain a balanced allocation; for bonds, pay attention to policy signals; for commodities, the sharp adjustment of precious metal prices may bring new long - term layout opportunities [14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market行情Analysis Stock Market - The A - share market was volatile and shrinking. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3913.76 points, down 0.07%; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.62% to 12996.61 points; the ChiNext Index dropped 0.79% to 3059.32 points; the STAR 50 closed at 1405.41 points, down 0.06%. The total trading volume was 1.69 trillion yuan, a 10.7% decrease from the previous day [3]. - The energy and banking sectors led the gains, while the precious metal sector tumbled. The energy equipment index rose 2.44%, the oil and gas index increased 1.37%, and the banking index rose 0.93%. The precious metal index dropped 2.49% [6]. - Due to the shift of funds from high - valuation technology stocks to low - valuation value stocks, it is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation. If the trading volume continues to decline, beware of the risk of insufficient market liquidity support [6]. Bond Market - The bond market maintained a relatively strong trend. The 30 - year main contract of treasury bond futures led the gains, and the short - end contracts were relatively weak. The central bank increased net investment, and the market sentiment was driven by the expectation of loose monetary policy and institutional duration - extension behavior [12]. - As the end of the month approaches, attention should be paid to macro - events such as the policy tone of the Fourth Plenary Session, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, and the impact of changes in capital fluctuations and policy expectations on subsequent trends [12]. Commodity Market - The domestic commodity futures market showed a sharply differentiated pattern. The energy and chemical sectors led the gains, while the precious metal sector was heavily hit. Crude - oil related varieties such as asphalt (2.95%), crude oil (2.52%), and low - sulfur fuel oil (2.32%) had significant increases, while Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver fell 3.92% and 3.86% respectively [11][12]. - The sharp decline in precious metal prices may be due to the expectation of the end of the Russia - Ukraine war and the market's concern that the CPI data to be released on October 24 may exceed expectations and weaken the Fed's rate - cut efforts [12]. Transaction Hotspot Tracking Recent Popular Varieties Combing - Precious metals: The central bank's continuous purchases and the Fed's expected rate cuts are the core logics. Follow - up concerns include the Fed's rate - cut situation and geopolitical risks [16]. - Dividend stocks: Market style switching is the core logic. Pay attention to the third - quarter report performance and corporate dividend situations [16]. - Artificial intelligence: The accelerating capital expenditure of global technology giants is the core logic. Focus on the capital expenditure and orders of US and domestic technology leaders [16]. - Nuclear fusion: The industrialization acceleration of the mid - upstream links is the core logic. Track project progress and industry bidding situations [16]. - Domestic chips: Technological breakthroughs and large domestic substitution space are the core logics. Watch for lithography machine technology breakthroughs and the progress of self - developed chips by Baidu, Alibaba, etc. [16]. - Robots: The accelerating industrialization trend is the core logic. Follow the order release rhythm of Tesla and the technological progress of domestic enterprises [16]. - Big consumption: RMB appreciation and market style switching are the core logics. Pay attention to the economic recovery situation and further stimulus policies [16]. - Securities firms: Active trading and deposit transfer are the core logics. Focus on the A - share market trading volume and possible changes in trading systems [16]. Recent Core Idea Summary - For equities, due to the lack of significant release of trading volume, it is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation in the short term. In the long - term, technology may still be dominant [14]. - For the bond market, the central bank's net investment and loose capital support the bond market. Pay attention to policy signals from the Financial Street Forum and the Fed's interest - rate meeting at the end of the month [14]. - For commodities, the sharp adjustment of precious metal prices may bring new long - term layout opportunities, and the prices of precious metals may reach new highs during the Fed's rate - cut cycle [14].