软商品日报-20251022

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton is "Sideways" [1] - The investment rating for sugar is "Sideways with a Weak Bias" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, on Tuesday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.39% to 64.41 cents per pound, and CF601 increased 0.78% to 13,540 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 231 lots to 593,200 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,530 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day. The international market focuses on the macro - level, with the Fed's two consecutive 25 - BP interest rate cuts this year fully priced in by the market, and the U.S. dollar index relatively strong, so U.S. cotton prices lack a continuous upward drive. In the domestic market, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures has been rising, influenced by different views on domestic cotton production growth in the 2025/26 season, the rising purchase price of new cotton in southern Xinjiang, and the good Q3 economic data and a significant meeting boosting market sentiment. In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton is likely to remain in a sideways range, with supply and hedging pressure on the upside and cost and expectations as support on the downside [1] - For sugar, in the third week of October, Brazil exported 2.3346 million tons of sugar and molasses, a 2.68% decrease compared to the same period last year. The daily average export volume was 179,500 tons. The spot prices of sugar in different regions showed some adjustments. Affected by sufficient supply, the raw sugar futures price dropped by over 3% yesterday, with weak short - term rebound momentum. The domestic spot market had average trading volume, with prices continuing to decline, old sugar being actively destocked, and the futures price breaking below the 5400 - point mark, showing a weak trend with short - term bearish sentiment hard to change [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 65, down 10; the main basis was 1188, down 26. The spot price in Xinjiang was 14,586 yuan per ton, up 34, and the national spot price was 14,728 yuan per ton, up 49 [2] - Sugar: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 40, up 1; the main basis was 342, down 10. The spot price in Nanning was 5770 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou was 5780 yuan per ton, unchanged [2] 2. Market Information - Cotton: On October 21, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2579, down 19 from the previous trading day, with 263 valid forecasts. The arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions on that day were: 14,586 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,755 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,753 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,913 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The comprehensive load of yarn was 51.4, the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.2, the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 52, and the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 29.5, all unchanged from the previous day [3] - Sugar: On October 21, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5770 yuan per ton, and in Liuzhou was 5780 yuan per ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 8376, down 31 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4] 3. Chart Analysis - There are multiple charts including those for cotton (main contract closing price, main contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, China cotton price index) and sugar (main contract closing price, main contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts) [6][9][11][15][18]