黑色商品日报-20251022

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Steel: Weak consolidation [1] - Iron ore: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Coking coal: Oscillation [1] - Coke: Oscillation [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [1] Group 2: Core Views - Steel: The steel billet exports have significantly increased, alleviating the supply pressure of rebar. Recently, steel mills' profits have been continuously shrinking, with more mills reducing production and undergoing maintenance. Meanwhile, downstream demand remains low, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand for rebar. It is expected that the rebar futures market will continue to operate in a weak consolidation pattern in the short term [1]. - Iron ore: The supply of iron ore from Australia and Brazil has slightly increased, and the demand for iron ore remains high, which provides strong support for prices. However, steel mills' profits have declined, and the demand for steel remains weak, causing the sentiment in the black commodity market to turn bearish. In the short term, iron ore prices are expected to show a range-bound oscillation pattern [1]. - Coking coal: Some coal mines have reduced or halted production due to over - production inspections and safety checks, leading to a continuous tightening of the coking coal market supply, which strongly supports coking coal prices. Downstream coke enterprises are more resistant to high - priced resources and are cautious in their purchases. In the short term, the coking coal futures market is expected to operate in a wide - range oscillation pattern [1]. - Coke: Mainstream coke enterprises in many regions have initiated a second price increase, but steel mills have not responded yet. Coke enterprises' production levels are relatively stable, and their inventories have decreased to a low level. The increase in coking coal prices has led to a decline in coke enterprises' profits. In the short term, the coke futures market is expected to operate in a wide - range oscillation pattern [1]. - Manganese silicon: The prices of the black commodity sector have shown some divergence recently. The production of manganese silicon has stopped falling and rebounded, while the demand from downstream steel mills has continued to decline. The inventory of sample enterprises has gradually increased. In the short term, the manganese silicon market is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the overall trend of the black commodity sector [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The production of ferrosilicon has slightly decreased recently, which has supported the ferrosilicon futures prices. However, the overall demand stimulation is limited, and the inventory remains at a high level. In the short term, the ferrosilicon market is expected to maintain an oscillation pattern, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [1]. Group 3: Summary of Daily Data Monitoring - Contract spreads: For different black commodities, the spreads between different contracts (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months) have shown various changes, including increases and decreases [4]. - Basis: The basis of each black commodity's main contract has also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. - Spot prices: The spot prices of different black commodities in various regions have different trends, including price increases, decreases, and stability [4]. - Profits and spreads: The profits of different steel - making processes (such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and the spreads between different commodities (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) have also changed [4]. Group 4: Chart Analysis - Main contract prices: The report presents the closing prices of the main contracts of various black commodities (such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc.) over the years through charts, showing their price trends [6][7][8][9][11][15]. - Main contract basis: The basis of the main contracts of various black commodities over different time periods is presented through charts, reflecting the relationship between futures and spot prices [17][18][19][21][22][23][24]. - Inter - period contract spreads: The spreads between different contracts of various black commodities (such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc.) over different time periods are presented through charts, showing the price differences between different contracts [27][29][30][32][33][35][36][37][39][41]. - Inter - commodity contract spreads: The spreads between different black commodities (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) over the years are presented through charts, reflecting the price relationships between different commodities [42][43][44][45]. - Rebar profits: The report presents the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar over the years through charts, showing the profit trends of rebar production [47][48][50][51]. Group 5: Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and expertise in the black commodity field [53][54].