农产品日报-20251022

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish with some uncertainty: Soybean (★☆☆), Egg (★☆☆) [1] - Trend of long position: Soybean No.1 (★★★), Soybean Meal (★★★), Soybean Oil (★★★) [1] - Trend of short position: Palm Oil (☆☆☆), Rapeseed Meal (☆☆☆), Rapeseed Oil (☆☆☆), Live Pig (☆☆☆) [1] - Relatively balanced short - term trend: Corn (★☆☆) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pig, and egg, and provides investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationship, trade policies, and market sentiment [2][3][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean No.1 - The main contract of domestic soybeans reduced positions, and the price continued to decline. The auction price was 3900 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The market participants are actively purchasing new grains. The spread between domestic and imported soybeans is oscillating. The US soybean market lacks official data, and the export demand is uncertain. Short - term attention should be paid to the purchase performance and policy guidance [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures first declined and then rose, and the spot price dropped by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The domestic soybean arrival volume is sufficient, and the supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable. If the Sino - US trade relationship deteriorates, the supply in the first quarter of next year may be tight. In the context of high supply and high inventory, if the trade does not ease, the soybean meal futures will likely continue to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The ratio of soybean oil to palm oil started to decline, with palm oil falling more. The EU proposed a ban on importing forest - destroying commodities, and the Malaysian palm oil production and export increased in October. The US soybean market lacks data, and the export demand is uncertain. Short - term attention should be paid to the ratio adjustment, and in the long - term, opportunities for oil to be stronger than meal should be sought [3] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed products market is weak. The market is waiting for the development of Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The Canadian rapeseed harvest is over, but the export has not improved. The Australian rapeseed will arrive in the fourth quarter, and the Russian rapeseed oil export to China may increase. The short - term trend of rapeseed products futures is not obvious [5] Corn - The main contract of corn futures oscillated weakly. The spot price in the Northeast is stable, and the supply of wet corn is sufficient. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The new corn listing in the Northeast will increase in the next two weeks, and the corn futures will likely continue to run weakly at the bottom [6] Live Pig - The live pig spot price rebounded driven by secondary fattening, and the futures oscillated narrowly. The pig price has entered a rebound cycle, but due to the large supply pressure, the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended after the rebound. The pig price is likely to form a double - bottom pattern, and there may be a second bottom in the first half of next year [7] Egg - The egg futures rose and then fell, and the market remained weak. The old - hen culling sentiment is cautious, and the cold - storage eggs have not been fully sold. The short - selling trend of the futures continues [8]