Report Overview - Report Date: October 22, 2025 [4] - Report Title: Rubber, Methanol, Crude Oil - Daily Report - Report Author: Chen Dong from Baocheng Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rubber: On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and slightly rising. The price center moved up to around 15,100 yuan/ton. Benefiting from better-than-expected production and sales in the domestic auto market, the demand drive strengthened, which was conducive to the valuation repair of the Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 [6]. - Methanol: On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and slightly rising. The price reached a maximum of 2,276 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,257 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread discount widened to 20 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic methanol market is still in a stage of oversupply and weak demand, and the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 remains in a weak state [6]. - Crude Oil: On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2512 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, stabilizing in oscillation, and slightly rising. The price reached a maximum of 448.1 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 434.0 yuan/barrel. As the previous macro - negative sentiment was "gradually digested, the short - term macro - drive was corrected, and the "bullish" atmosphere recovered. It is expected that the prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures will maintain a stable and oscillating trend in the future [6]. " 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of October 19, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 437,500 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons or 4.07% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 69,600 tons, a decrease of 1.70%, and the general trade inventory was 367,900 tons, a decrease of 4.51%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 2.14 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.01 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.97 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.21 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a week - on - week increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises "was 63.96%, a week - on - week increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points. Most enterprises' "capacity utilization rates" have recovered "to pre - holiday levels, and the overall shipment performance within the cycle varies [8]. - In September 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The new order index showed stable " "expansion. " In September, "China's automobile "production and sales" were " "3.276 million "and 3.226 million "units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. In the first three quarters of 2025, China's cumulative automobile production and sales were 24.333 million and 24.363 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and "12.9% respectively. In September 2025 " the sales volume of China's heavy - truck " "market was 105,00 " "units, a year - on - year increase of about "82% "and a month - on - month increase of 15%, " "ach "ieving " six consecutive months of growth [9]. " Methanol - As of the week of October 17, 2025 " "the average domestic "methanol " "operating rate "was maintained at 84.38%, a week - on - week "slight increase of 4 "%, a month - on - month " "significant increase of 4.99%, and a slight increase of 2.95% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly production of methanol in China reached 1.9837 million tons, a week - on - "week "slight decrease "of 49,3 " "tons, a month - on - month significant increase of 64,400 tons, and a significant increase of 118,600 tons compared with "1.86 "51 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.95%, a week - on - week slight decrease of "0.03%. The operating rate of dimethyl ether was maintained at 6.68%, a week - on - week slight decrease of "1.52%. The operating rate " "of acetic acid was "maintained at 71.61%, a week - on - week significant "decline of 10.04%. The operating rate of MTBE was maintained at 54.89%, a week - on - week slight "de " " "crease of 3%. As of the week of " "October 17, 2025, the " "average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin " " "plants was " "88.36%, a week - on - week slight " " "increase of 0.39 percentage points and a month - on - month slight increase of 5.48 "%. As of October 17, 2025, the futures " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " 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偏多情绪回暖，能化震荡企稳
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-10-22 11:29