银河期货鸡蛋日报-20251022

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply of laying hens remains high, leading to short - term supply pressure. The demand is generally weak, and without significant improvement, egg prices are expected to be weak. Near - month contracts are likely to show a weak and volatile trend, and it is advisable to consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3147, down 22 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3328, down 11; JD09 closed at 3777, down 51 [3]. - 01 - 05 spread closed at - 181, down 11; 05 - 09 spread closed at - 449, up 40; 09 - 01 spread closed at 630, down 29 [3]. - 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.48, unchanged; 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.09, down 0.01 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price in the production area was 2.72 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price in the sales area was 2.98 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin [3]. - The average price of culled chickens was 4.14 yuan/jin, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - The average price of culled chickens was 4.14 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 [3]. - The profit per chicken was - 4.68 yuan, down 0.01 from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - The average price in the main production area was 2.72 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price in the main sales area was 2.98 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin. Most mainstream prices across the country remained stable [6]. - In September, the number of laying hens in production was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and a 6% year - on - year increase. The monthly chick output of sample enterprises in September was 39.2 million, a 1.5% month - on - month decrease and a 14% year - on - year decrease [7]. - From October 16th to the week, the number of culled hens in the main production area was 20.32 million, a 2.8% increase from the previous week. The average culling age was 499 days, unchanged from the previous week [7]. - As of October 17th, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7374 tons, a 2.7% increase from the previous week [8]. - As of October 17th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.3 yuan/jin, down 0.29 yuan/jin from the previous week [8]. - As of October 17th, the average inventory in the production link was 1.05 days, a decrease of 0.45 days; the average inventory in the circulation link was 1.1 days, a decrease of 0.23 days [8]. 3.5 Trading Logic The supply of laying hens remains high, resulting in short - term supply pressure. The demand is generally weak. Without significant improvement, egg prices are expected to be weak, and near - month contracts are likely to show a weak and volatile trend [9]. 3.6 Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, consider closing out previous short positions to take profits [10]. - For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - For options, it is recommended to wait and see [10].