拉尼娜现象出现概率上升，短期天然气市场或受扰动

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" due to the expectation of an increase in natural gas prices in the event of a cold winter, which is anticipated to exceed the market average by more than 15% in the next 3-6 months [5]. Core Insights - The probability of the La Niña phenomenon occurring has risen to over 75%, which may lead to significant temperature fluctuations during the winter months in the Northern Hemisphere [2][3]. - Current European natural gas inventory levels are at a median level, and a cold winter could drive up natural gas prices in Asia and Europe, presenting investment opportunities in upstream natural gas production [5]. - Long-term trends indicate that the global LNG market supply and demand will gradually become more balanced, leading to a potential decline in gas prices in Asia and Europe, which could enhance the profitability of downstream natural gas sales [4][5]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - The NOAA Climate Prediction Center reported a greater than 75% probability of La Niña occurring from October to December 2025, with sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central Pacific remaining around -0.5 degrees, confirming La Niña indicators [1][2]. Industry Analysis - The onset of La Niña is expected to result in colder winters in the Northern Hemisphere, although other factors may influence this outcome. The average temperature across the Eurasian continent is predicted to be higher than historical averages, despite potential cold snaps due to La Niña [2]. - In mid-October, northern China experienced a significant temperature drop, leading to increased coal consumption in power generation. The average daily coal consumption rose by 12.5% week-on-week during this period [3]. - The EU's natural gas inventory is at 83.09% capacity, down 13.05% from the previous year, indicating a potential risk of price increases if a cold winter occurs [3]. Long-term LNG Supply and Demand - From 2025 to 2029, global LNG liquefaction capacity is expected to grow rapidly, particularly in North America, where export capacity is projected to increase by approximately 152% [4]. - The balance of supply and demand in the LNG market is expected to improve, leading to a narrowing of the price gap between Asian, European, and North American natural gas markets [4]. Investment Recommendations - Given the increased likelihood of La Niña and its potential impact on winter temperatures, investors are advised to focus on upstream natural gas production companies. Additionally, as the LNG market stabilizes, downstream natural gas sales may benefit from improved price margins [5].