GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-10-22 13:36Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the electric heavy truck market [4]. Core Insights - The electric heavy truck market in China is experiencing rapid growth driven by the vehicle replacement policy, with a significant increase in penetration rates. The market is expected to continue expanding due to economic and environmental advantages [7][14]. - In Europe, stricter carbon emission regulations and supportive policies are accelerating the electrification of heavy trucks, with notable growth in sales and penetration rates [16][19]. - The U.S. market currently has a low level of electrification for heavy trucks, but growth is beginning to emerge due to government incentives [35]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report highlights that the electric heavy truck market in China is set for explosive growth, benefiting the lithium battery industry and key material companies. Recommended stocks include CATL, BYD, Guoxuan High-Tech, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others [7][8]. Electric Heavy Trucks: Policy Support and Economic Viability - Electric heavy trucks are gaining traction due to their zero emissions, low noise, and efficiency, making them increasingly popular among logistics and transportation companies. The comprehensive cost of electric trucks is becoming competitive compared to traditional fuel trucks, especially with government subsidies [9][13]. China: Growth Driven by Replacement Policies - In 2024, China's electric heavy truck sales reached 82,100 units, a 140% year-on-year increase, with penetration rates doubling to 13.61%. By 2025, sales continued to rise, with a total of 137,800 units sold in the first three quarters, marking a 184% increase [14]. Europe: Accelerated Electrification Due to Emission Regulations - The European market saw electric heavy truck sales exceed 3,000 units in 2023, a threefold increase from the previous year, with penetration rates surpassing 1%. The growth is supported by stringent emission regulations and the introduction of new models [19][27]. United States: Low Current Electrification Level - The U.S. electric heavy truck market remains at a low penetration rate of less than 1%. However, sales are projected to reach 1,103 units in 2024, a 34% increase from the previous year, driven by clean vehicle subsidy programs [35].