宏观经济专题研究：“十五五”的三条经济线索

Group 1: Economic Transition - The "14th Five-Year Plan" achieved a compound annual growth rate of 5.4%, easing the pressure for growth in the "15th Five-Year Plan" period[1] - The transition from "quantity increase" to "quality change" is crucial for the "15th Five-Year Plan" as it aims to reach the goal of becoming a "moderately developed country" by 2035[1] - The future growth model will shift from a single GDP-driven approach to a three-pronged approach of "real GDP + inflation + exchange rate"[1] Group 2: New Quality Productivity - Cultivating new quality productivity will be the central goal of the "15th Five-Year Plan," focusing on upgrading traditional industries and developing emerging sectors[2] - The strategy includes a gradient structure of "traditional upgrades, emerging growth, and future cultivation," emphasizing the importance of new service industries[2] - The service sector is seen as a key area for the implementation of new quality productivity, with a shift from "investment in things" to "investment in people" expected[2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Balance - There are signs of structural and local imbalances in supply and demand, necessitating "anti-involution" policies to address these issues[3] - Short-term interventions may include production limits in key industries, while long-term solutions require systemic reforms to reshape local government incentives[3] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" provides a critical opportunity for reform to address these imbalances[3] Group 4: Factor Market Reform - Market-oriented reforms aim to establish an "effective market" to enhance resource allocation efficiency, which is fundamental for cultivating new quality productivity and addressing "anti-involution" issues[4] - Current challenges include a "dual-track" system in factor markets, which hinders pricing and circulation[4] - The urbanization of agricultural migrant workers is expected to be a foundational logic for the next growth phase, with approximately 250 million people still needing urban household registration[4]