国投期货软商品日报-20251022

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: No clear rating indicated, operation advice is to watch temporarily [2] - Paper Pulp: No clear rating indicated, operation advice is to watch temporarily [6] - Sugar: No clear rating indicated, expected to maintain a weak trend [3] - Apple: No clear rating indicated, operation advice is to watch temporarily [4] - Logs: Operation advice is to maintain a bullish mindset [7] - Natural Rubber: One star, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - 20 - number Rubber: One star, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] - Butadiene Rubber: One star, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the trading floor [1] 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, paper pulp, sugar, apple, logs, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and butadiene rubber, providing insights into supply, demand, inventory, and price trends, and giving corresponding investment operation suggestions [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton slightly declined, and traders lowered the spot basis. Xinjiang machine - picked cotton prices were stable with a slight upward trend. As of October 15th, the national new cotton picking progress was 58.8%, up 4.7 percentage points year - on - year, and the cumulative processed lint was 98.2 tons, an increase of 17.9 tons year - on - year. The peak season showed a weak performance, and new orders for pure cotton yarn mills were insufficient. Macroscopically, the market expectations were chaotic. Zhengzhou cotton's short - term rise was considered a rebound, and it was advised to watch temporarily [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar was weak. In Brazil, although the cane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the sugar - making ratio increased, maintaining high sugar production. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand were about to start crushing, and sugar production was expected to increase year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar was weak, and the market's focus shifted to the next season's output estimate. In Guangxi, rainfall was good after July, and the sugar production forecast for the 25/26 season was relatively good. Overall, sugar prices were expected to remain weak [3] Apple - Futures prices were strong. In Shandong, trading volume increased, and high - quality goods had high prices. In the Northwest production area, most high - quality goods had been ordered. The market was mainly trading the cold - storage inventory volume. The national apple bagging volume decreased slightly year - on - year, and due to small fruit diameters, production might be adjusted downwards. The initial cold - storage inventory in the new season might be higher than expected. It was advised to watch temporarily [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all fluctuated, and the futures market sentiment was mainly watchful. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable, the synthetic rubber spot price rose, the overseas butadiene port price fell, and the Thai raw material market prices mostly declined. The global natural rubber supply entered the high - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate continued to rise, while the upstream butadiene plant operating rate continued to decline. After the National Day, tire enterprises resumed production, and the domestic tire operating rate rebounded significantly. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 43.75 tons, while the domestic butadiene and synthetic rubber inventories increased. The strategy was to expect a rebound after an oversold situation [5] Paper Pulp - Today, paper pulp futures rose. The spot price of coniferous pulp was stable, and the broad - leaf pulp price was also stable. As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of mainstream paper pulp ports in China was 207.4 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from the previous period. In September, domestic paper pulp imports increased year - on - year. The domestic port inventory was relatively high, and the supply was relatively loose. The paper pulp demand was average, and the downstream demand lacked peak - season support. Recently, the overseas broad - leaf pulp quotation continued to rise, narrowing the price difference between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp. It was advised to watch temporarily [6] Logs - Futures prices fluctuated. The mainstream spot price was stable. In October, the New Zealand radiata pine quotation increased, and the domestic spot price was weak, reducing traders' import willingness. The overseas quotation was still high, and the domestic supply was expected to remain low. The port outbound volume was above 60,000 cubic meters, and the peak - season demand supported the price. The log inventory was low, and the inventory pressure was relatively small. It was advised to maintain a bullish mindset [7]