从银行视角看年内“双降”

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Views - The necessity for the central bank to inject medium- and long-term stable funds into banks is increasing [2][14] - The necessity to lower the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) within the year is not significant [4][38] - The necessity to lower deposit rates is also not significant [6][45] Summary by Sections 1. Necessity for Central Bank's Fund Injection - It is expected that there will be one more reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut this year, likely in December [2][14] - Historical patterns indicate an average of one comprehensive RRR cut every six months since 2021, with the last cut over five months ago [14] - The balance of MDS and MLF tools has exceeded 11 trillion yuan, increasing the difficulty of liquidity management for banks [20][24] - Banks are showing a clear trend of shortening deposit durations, indicating a need for long-term liquidity release through RRR cuts [3][27] 2. Necessity to Lower LPR - The likelihood of lowering LPR this year is low, as it may not significantly stimulate credit demand in Q4 [4][38] - Historical data shows that the probability of LPR cuts in November and December over the past five years is low [39] - Lowering LPR could exacerbate repricing pressure in the first quarter of the following year [40][44] 3. Necessity to Lower Deposit Rates - There is currently no indication of a new round of deposit rate cuts, as the last collective cut by major banks occurred in May [6][45] - The cost of liabilities has significantly improved due to the maturity of high-interest deposits, reducing the necessity for further cuts [51][53] - Lowering deposit rates could lead to increased deposit disintermediation, negatively impacting the stability of funding across year-end [53][57]